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IAMGOLD heads into its November 5 earnings with a split signal: short sellers are quietly rebuilding positions after a sharp washout last month, yet the borrow market remains so loose it barely registers as a constraint.
The most notable move this week is in the lending market, though not in the direction that typically makes headlines. Cost to borrow has more than doubled over the past week, climbing from around 0.58% to 1.11%. That is still cheap by any standard, but the velocity of the move is worth noting. Over the past month, borrowing costs have roughly doubled, rising 107% from levels below 0.45% in late August. At the same time, short interest has jumped 11% in a week, from roughly 3.7 million shares to just over 4.1 million, recovering most of the ground lost when positions were trimmed sharply through September. The short interest level itself, at under 1% of free float, is too small to generate squeeze risk. Availability remains enormous, with 343 million shares available to borrow relative to shares already borrowed, a ratio that signals no stress whatsoever in the lending pool. The rising cost and rebuilding short position look more like tactical re-entry after a washout than the beginning of a conviction short campaign.
The Street picture is less useful than usual here. Analyst data on file dates to early 2021 and cannot be treated as current guidance. The price target on record (around CAD 5.35) bears no relationship to the stock trading near CAD 26.40 and should be disregarded entirely. What the factor scores do offer is more constructive: the EV/EBIT rank sits at the 90th percentile, a signal that valuation looks inexpensive relative to earnings power on that measure. The short score of 26.9 ranks well (88th percentile on short score rank), consistent with a stock where bearish positioning is modest. EPS momentum over 30 days is decent at the 61st percentile, though the 90-day reading has slipped to the 25th percentile, pointing to some softness in the forward earnings revision trend.
Ownership tells a more interesting story. Van Eck Associates remains the largest disclosed holder with just over 38 million shares, a stake that has grown by 11.4 million shares since the last reporting period. FMR (Fidelity's US arm) added 2.85 million shares as of July, while Mackenzie Financial and BMO Asset Management have each been buyers in recent months. On the other side, Resource Capital Fund VII filed a Schedule 13D/A in February 2025, marking it as an activist filer on the register with 21.5 million shares at 3.8% of the class. That filing is now more than 18 months old, and per the standard caveat on 13D/G disclosures, the position is as-last-disclosed: Resource Capital could have reduced below the reporting threshold without any obligation to file again. The 13D classification is nonetheless a structural fact about the register that has not been publicly withdrawn.
Earnings history adds context ahead of the November 5 print. The last reported quarter in early August produced a one-day move of roughly 14%, and the five-day follow-through was similarly strong at around 13%. That is a large implied move by any sector standard, and options traders will be aware of it heading into the next release.
With the stock down 7% over the past month but roughly flat on the week, the setup into Q3 results on November 5 centres on whether the Côté Gold ramp-up in Ontario continues to deliver operationally, and whether gold's consolidation near recent highs leaves room for the earnings beat pattern to repeat.
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