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Monolithic Power Systems enters its October 30 earnings window trading at $1,473.69, up 8.7% on the week and 20% over the past month, with the Street firmly bullish and short sellers in retreat.
The positioning picture is about as relaxed as it gets for a $1,400 stock. Short interest has eased 5.5% over the week to roughly 4% of the free float, and the borrow market reflects no real pressure at all. Cost to borrow has dropped 17% over the week to just 0.35%, the lowest level in the 30-day history shown. Availability is effectively unconstrained, well above 9,000% of short interest, meaning there are far more shares available to lend than there are shorts to borrow them. This is a stock where the lending market is almost entirely inactive. Options tell a similarly calm story. The put/call ratio is 1.03, marginally below its 20-day average of 1.05, with a z-score of negative 0.31. Far from defensive, options positioning is running close to neutral. The 52-week low on the PCR was 0.98, touched in mid-September as the stock rallied hard, and the current reading is barely above that. Nothing in the borrow or derivatives markets suggests hedging anxiety ahead of the print.
The Street is well onside. Twelve analysts carry buy ratings, two have outperform calls, and only two sit at hold. The mean price target is $1,839, implying around 25% upside from the current price. The most recent wave of analyst action came after the July 30 Q2 results, when Wells Fargo, Truist, Keybanc, and Needham all raised targets, with Keybanc the most aggressive at $2,100. StoneX initiated at buy with a $1,800 target in early September. The bull case centres on Enterprise Data, where Q2 revenue of $381 million came in 164% above the prior year and management raised its 2026 growth outlook to 130% year-on-year, driven by surging demand for power regulation in AI data centres. Bear side focus is narrower: roughly half the supply chain runs through mainland China, 90% of revenue flows through distribution, and the communications and consumer segments both missed in Q2 even as the headline impressed. The stock trades on a trailing P/E near 44x and an EV/EBITDA of 36.5x, both of which have expanded materially over the past 30 days as the share price has run. The ORTEX short score is 35.2, and the overall combined score of 35.2 ranks in the 52nd percentile on short pressure, placing MPWR squarely in the uncontroversial middle ground.
The peer group has also had a strong week, which helps contextualise the MPWR move. ON Semiconductor gained 13.6% and Diodes rose 10.9%, while Analog Devices added 5.6%. MPWR's 8.7% weekly advance lags some of the faster-moving names in the group, suggesting the sector rally is broad rather than concentrated. The CEO, Michael Hsing, sold just under 30,000 shares on September 28 at prices around $1,330 to $1,357, raising approximately $40 million. All the transactions were filed under a 10b5-1 pre-arranged plan, which reduces their informational value as a sentiment signal, though the institutional register is otherwise steady. BlackRock reported just under 11.4% of shares and added around 109,000 shares in the most recent period. Van Eck added over 220,000 shares through September 30. No 13D activist is on the register.
After Q2 results on July 30, MPWR gained 14.2% the next day and was up 8.8% five days later. That was the most recent earnings print, and it followed a pattern of positive reactions. The October 30 report will therefore be watched for whether Enterprise Data can maintain the extraordinary pace of growth that justified those target upgrades, and whether the communications and consumer segments that missed in Q2 have begun to recover.
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