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Nomura Holdings enters the October 27 earnings window with short sellers pulling back sharply, a shift that stands in contrast to the stock's softer month even as the lending market moves decisively in the bulls' favour.
The most striking development this week is the collapse in borrowing costs. Cost to borrow fell to 0.70% on October 6, down from a brief spike to 10.9% on September 29, a move that suggests the burst of short-side demand that drove that spike has unwound almost entirely. Availability has swung the same way: shares available to borrow now represent roughly 1,376% of current short interest, up from around 463% at the start of October and the loosest the lending pool has been in the past 52 weeks (the prior 52-week low for availability was 411%). With that much room in the lending pool, there is no mechanical pressure building on existing short positions, and the entry cost for new shorts is minimal.
The ORTEX short score reinforces the picture of retreating bearish conviction. The score dropped to 30.5 on October 6 from 44.9 on October 1, a move of more than 14 points in five sessions. The short score's rank sits in the 33rd percentile of the universe, meaning the stock carries less short-side pressure than roughly two-thirds of names tracked. Days-to-cover ranks in the 18th percentile, pointing to a short book that is thin and easy to exit. Together, these readings describe a borrow market that is loosening quickly, not tightening.
The Street's framing is cautiously constructive. The analyst consensus implies roughly 15% upside from the current JPY 1,537 close to a mean target of JPY 1,773, though no target changes have been filed in the past two weeks. Valuation is modest: price-to-book has eased to 1.07, down about 0.10 over the past month as the stock has given back around 8% from its highs. The dividend yield (DPS/Price) has drifted up to 4.3% over the same period, adding income support at current levels. The sector score ranks at the 50th percentile, with the dividend score at the 69th, a reasonable setup for a name that markets as a yield-plus-recovery story.
On the ownership side, BlackRock remains the largest disclosed holder with 9.5% of shares, having added nearly 4.7 million shares to its position through September 30. Norges Bank Investment Management added a more substantial 8.2 million shares through June 30, a meaningful build for a sovereign fund. Both moves align with the broader international institutional interest noted in recent quarters. The company itself holds 1.1% of its own shares as of March 2026, and Nomura Asset Management holds a further 4.7%. The concentration of affiliated and passive holders limits the free float in practice and may partly explain why the borrow pool swings sharply on relatively modest demand changes.
Earnings history gives reason for caution about how the market responds to the October 27 print. The July 30 release produced a 3.3% one-day decline. The July 29 event (likely a revision or secondary filing) saw a 6.4% drop on the day. On a five-day view the moves were small, near flat to slightly negative, but the pattern of immediate selling pressure after prints is consistent. The stock is down 7.9% on the month heading into the report.
What to watch between now and October 27 is whether the cost to borrow stays compressed near current levels or spikes again as it did on September 29, and whether institutional holders continue building positions into a report that has twice this year produced a negative first-day reaction.
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