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ELV enters the week with short sellers continuing to press their bets, even as the slide that triggered the original build shows no sign of reversing.
The short position has grown further since last week's note. Short interest now stands at 7.8% of the free float, up from 7.0% a week ago and nearly double the level from six weeks back. The week-on-week rise of roughly 11% adds to the 69% monthly build reported in the previous note, confirming this is a sustained directional move rather than a brief positioning spike. The stock itself has dropped another 8% over the past week to AUD 5.20, a 34% decline over the past month. Shorts are not covering into weakness; they are adding.
The borrow market tells a subtly different story from the short interest trend. Availability has tightened from above 900% in late August to 289% now, with a further 10% tightening over the past week alone. That trajectory is worth watching even though the absolute level remains comfortable: there are still nearly three shares available to borrow for every one already lent out, and cost to borrow has actually eased to 2.35%, down sharply from the 3.7%-to-4.0% range that held through most of September. Borrow is cheap and supply plentiful, meaning there is little mechanical friction preventing the short position from growing further. The ORTEX short score has crept up to 61.8, its highest reading in the recent history shown, reinforcing the picture of a stock where bearish positioning is building steadily rather than plateauing.
The most recent analyst data on file carries a mean price target of AUD 13.44, implying substantial upside from current levels. However, that figure dates to late September 2026 and there are no recent target changes on record, so the gap between the target and the AUD 5.20 close is likely a function of stale estimates that have not caught up with the share price decline. The factor scores add texture: the short score rank sits in the 5th percentile, meaning ELV ranks among the most heavily shorted names in its peer universe, while the EPS surprise score ranks in just the 1st percentile. The EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed alongside the price, now at 3.3x, and the price-to-book has fallen to 0.69x, below replacement cost.
Among peers, the picture is mixed but not uniformly bearish. PLS eked out a 0.5% gain on the week and MIN was broadly flat. LTR and VUL each fell around 12%, suggesting ELV's weakness this week is not entirely idiosyncratic. Still, ELV's one-month loss of 34% significantly outpaces the peer group's recent moves, and the sustained short build sets it apart from names where positioning has been more stable.
Institutional holders account for a large share of the register. BNY Asset Management holds just over 20% of shares, unchanged at last report. Van Eck and State Street both added modestly at end-September, the latter increasing its position by nearly two million shares. RCF Management trimmed by 2.5 million shares as of early August. The insider data is stale, with the most recent disclosed transaction dating to June 2026, so it carries little current signal.
Earnings are scheduled for 22 October. The last two results triggered negative moves: the August print produced a one-day decline of around 5.8% and a five-day loss of 10.6%. With short interest still rising and availability gradually tightening, the October print will show whether the short thesis is fundamentally driven or whether any positive surprise forces a reckoning in the lending market.
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