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The United States Brent Oil Fund BNO presents an unusual picture this week: the fund has climbed 10% over the past month while bearish positioning has roughly doubled over the same period, a rare divergence between price and sentiment in a passive commodity wrapper.
The short interest story is the one worth leading with here. Short positions have risen to 120.6% of the fund's free float, up from around 37% just weeks ago and more than double where they were a month ago. That figure is only possible in an ETF structure, where authorised participants can create and redeem shares, so the raw percentage overstates the squeeze risk a traditional equity short would carry. Still, the pace of accumulation is striking: shorts grew 112% over the past month, with the bulk of that jump arriving around late September when positions nearly doubled between the 22nd and 24th. The ORTEX short score of 69.8 reflects that pressure, running near the top of its recent range.
The lending market tells a more complex story. Availability has tightened sharply in the past week, dropping from roughly 50% to 17.5% as of October 7. That level means there are fewer than two shares available for every ten already borrowed, a meaningfully tighter setup than the fund saw through most of September. The 52-week low touched near zero in mid-September, so there is precedent for tighter conditions, but the direction of travel this week is firmly toward less supply. Cost to borrow has moved with it, climbing 39% on the week to 3.28% and up 68% over the past month. For an oil ETF, that is an elevated carrying cost for a short position.
Options positioning is calm by contrast. The put/call ratio of 0.23 is only marginally above its 20-day average of 0.21, with a z-score below 1. The 52-week range runs from 0.06 to 0.42, so the current reading sits in the middle of that range, well below last year's most defensive posture. Calls dominate the options book, consistent with traders using BNO to express a bullish view on Brent crude rather than hedge downside. That diverges from the rising short interest and suggests the fund is being used simultaneously by bulls and bears with different instruments and timeframes.
One registered holder worth noting is Carronade Capital Management, which disclosed an 8.6% passive stake in a Schedule 13G filing dated August 14, 2026. A 13G indicates a non-activist, passive holding. As with all 13D/G disclosures, the position reflects ownership as last reported around the 5% threshold, and Carronade could have reduced or exited since without a further obligation to file.
The next meaningful signal to watch is whether availability continues to tighten toward the near-zero levels seen in mid-September, and whether that prompts any unwind in the short base given the cost of carrying positions in an ETF that has now risen more than 10% on the month.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open BNO on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data and reviewed by the ORTEX team. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
