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Ginkgo Bioworks faces its sharpest test of its recent rally. The stock fell 7.6% on Wednesday to $11.47, cutting its one-week loss to 10.6%, even as it retains a 65% gain over the past month.
Short sellers have been rebuilding positions steadily through that rally, and the pace is now accelerating. Short interest climbed to 16.6% of free float on Wednesday, up 31% over the past month. The month-on-month trajectory tells the clearest story: as the stock ran from the mid-$6s toward $12, bears added aggressively, lifting share count short from around 5.7 million to 7.5 million. The borrow market remains accessible despite that build. Availability is ample at roughly 289%, meaning nearly three shares are available to borrow for every one already shorted, and cost to borrow, while up 32% on the month, remains low at around 0.64%. There is no sign of a mechanically tight lending situation here, just a growing short book betting the rally has overshot. Options traders appear to agree with that directional lean: the put/call ratio is 0.18, well below its 20-day average of 0.22 and near the 52-week low of 0.16. Call buying has dominated the options flow, consistent with momentum chasers who rode the upside but have not yet added meaningful downside protection despite the reversal.
The Street looks split, and the current price of $11.47 already challenges where at least one analyst's target sits. BTIG has maintained a Sell rating with a $5 target, a level confirmed in a reiteration in early September. TD Cowen downgraded from Buy to Hold in August, cutting its target to $9 from $12, directly after the prior earnings report sent the stock down roughly 9% in one session and 23% over the following five days. The consensus mean target of $14.50 is above the current price, but with only two active analysts in the coverage history, that mean carries limited weight. Factor scores add little comfort: the short score of 62 ranks in just the 19th percentile of the universe, and quality metrics remain deeply negative, the company carries a negative PE, a negative EV/EBITDA, and the price-to-book of 1.1 is the only valuation anchor that doesn't flash red.
The activist register is one of the more unusual features of the cap table. Reshma Shetty, a co-founder of Ginkgo, holds a Schedule 13D filing from February 2025 at 9.5% of class, making her a disclosed activist holder. As always with 13D/G disclosures, the stake is as-last-reported and a holder can fall below 5% without filing again. Among institutional investors, BlackRock added 640,000 shares in the quarter ending September 30, bringing its holding to 6.4% of shares. Vanguard's separate filing shows it has dropped to zero, having previously disclosed 5.1%. Cascade Investment, the Bill Gates family office, remains a static holder at around 4.9% with no recent change reported.
Earnings history adds a specific note of caution. The two most recent quarterly prints both resulted in sharp declines: a 14.9% drop the day after the August 2026 report, and a 9.3% fall the day after the prior report, with five-day moves of minus 23% in both cases. The next scheduled report is November 5, roughly four weeks away.
With short interest at a one-month high, cost to borrow rising, and the stock now reversing sharply from a momentum peak, the November 5 print becomes the clearest focal point: whether the bear case that drove 31% monthly short-interest growth finds confirmation in the numbers, or whether the rally's foundations prove more durable than a split Street currently credits.
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