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Modivo has spent another week with its lending market at or near complete exhaustion, and the cost to borrow has now climbed to its highest level in at least six weeks.
The borrow story has tightened further since the post-earnings note published on October 5. Availability has dropped back to zero, meaning every share in the lending pool is currently lent out. That is the tightest the market has been all year, matching the zero readings seen repeatedly through September. The week-on-week collapse in available supply is 100%. Cost to borrow has pushed to 17.3%, up 13% over the past week and 29% over the past month, the highest level visible in the 30-day history. For shorts already in the position, that is an escalating carry burden. For anyone trying to add, the economics of entry keep deteriorating. The ORTEX short score is 91.5, essentially unchanged over the past two weeks, confirming this is a deeply entrenched bearish position rather than fresh momentum. The utilization rank sits in the first percentile of the universe.
What makes this positioning notable is what it has not delivered. The stock closed at PLN 90.16 on October 8, up 4.2% on the week despite a 2.9% pullback in the final session. That gain follows a modest October 1 earnings release that produced a 3.4% one-day move. Over the past month the stock is off only 1.3%. Bears paying 17%-plus to borrow are not being rewarded on price, even as their carry costs rise. The short score and borrow conditions tell a story of maximum pressure on the short side, but the price line has not cooperated.
On valuation, the stock trades at a PE of 13.6 and an EV/EBITDA of 5.9, both of which have moved modestly over the past month with no clear direction. The price-to-book ratio of 2.6 has risen sharply, up roughly 0.8 over 30 days, which may reflect the price recovering off its August lows. Factor scores remain weak: the EV/EBIT rank is in the 10th percentile, the dividend score is in the 25th, and the sector score sits at the 50th. Quality and value are not the bull case here.
On the ownership side, ULTRO holds 30.7% of shares and made no change in the most recently reported period, keeping a dominant anchor position. Nationale-Nederlanden added roughly 3.1 million shares to reach 8.3% as of April. Goldman Sachs held 5.9% as of June, adding around 320,000 shares. The institutional register is not signalling panic on the long side, but it is also not sending fresh conviction buying signals. The most recent insider trade on record is a small open-market purchase by the Deputy Chairman in early July at PLN 102 to PLN 103, well above the current price, giving some indication of where management saw value earlier in the year.
The next scheduled earnings event is November 27. Between now and then, the question is whether the borrow cost continues to rise as availability stays near zero, or whether some unwinding of short positions relieves the pressure and loosens the lending pool.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
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