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Albertsons Companies heads into tomorrow's earnings with short sellers at their most committed position of the recent run, while options traders lean the other way.
Short interest has held above 10% of the free float through the final days before the print. The latest ORTEX estimate puts shares short at 55.2 million, or 10.05% of the free float, up roughly 5% over the past month. The ORTEX short score has edged up to 68.8, near the top of its recent range. Yet the borrow market remains entirely relaxed. Cost to borrow is just 0.51%, and availability has widened slightly over the past week to 221% of current short interest. There are more than two shares available to lend for every one already borrowed. That rules out any mechanical squeeze dynamic: the shorts are in by choice, not trapped by a tight borrow. Options traders are pointed in the opposite direction. The put/call ratio of 0.29 is essentially flat against its 20-day average of 0.29, and near its 52-week low of 0.22, so call volume is dominating the options market by a wide margin. The stock edged up 3.7% over the past week to $12.19, though it slipped 1.2% on Friday.
The debate between bulls and bears comes down to whether a stabilisation in same-store sales is enough to justify a re-rating from current levels. The bear case is concrete: gross margin is expected to slip 30 basis points to 27.2%, adjusted EBITDA is forecast to fall around 5.6% year-on-year, and management already cut full-year guidance sharply citing lower-income consumer pressure, food deflation and accelerating price investment. The prior earnings print made the bear case vivid. In July, shares fell 24% in a single session and lost a further 20% over the following five days after the guidance cut. The August print delivered a 1.4% one-day gain and a 4.6% five-day recovery, suggesting some stabilisation in sentiment since then. Bulls point to the digital business turning profitable for the first time, growing 13% in the first quarter, and management targeting improvement from minus 1.1% identical sales toward flat or better in 2026 and 2027. The mean analyst price target of $14.33 implies roughly 18% upside from current levels, though several targets were reset sharply lower in late July and the most recent note from RBC Capital on October 7 held the line at $13 with an Outperform rating.
Insider buying adds an unusual dimension to the setup. The CEO, CFO and a senior executive all made open-market purchases in late July, immediately after the July earnings collapse, spending a combined $2.5 million at prices around $11.40 to $11.50 per share. None were under a 10b5-1 plan. Those purchases are now sitting on a small gain at $12.19, but their proximity to the July floor gives them signalling weight. BlackRock increased its stake to 8.9% of shares as of September 30, the most recent 13G filing shows its position at 8.1%, and it added 1.3 million shares in the period. The Vanguard Group, by contrast, appears to have exited its disclosed position, with its last 13G/A filing in March 2026 showing a drop to zero from 7.16%, though as-last-disclosed stakes around the 5% threshold may not reflect subsequent moves.
Tomorrow's print is therefore a test of whether management's own capital commitment and the digital profitability inflection are enough to shift the narrative that the July guidance cut set.
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