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Constellation Brands has climbed 11.5% over the past week to $126.40. The analyst picture has shifted slightly. The short position keeps growing. Two things are now new since the last report: JP Morgan raised its target to $136 from $133, and Freedom Broker upgraded to Buy. Neither firm turned bullish on its own, but both are moving against the prevailing current.
The wave of October 8 analyst revisions was covered in detail in previous reports. What has changed: JP Morgan's Drew Levine raised his target to $136 from $133 while holding Neutral. Freedom Broker's Georgy Vashchenko went further, upgrading to Buy while cutting the target to $158 from $173. The upgrade is notable because it runs against the direction every other firm has taken since the October 7 earnings print.
The consensus mean target sits at $151.74. The stock is at $126.40. Eleven analysts rate it Buy, eight Hold. The analyst recommendation difference factor scores at the 95th percentile, meaning the consensus skew toward Buy is extreme relative to peers.
The activist register shows Warren Buffett's disclosed stake has fallen to 0.4% of the class, down from 7.6% at the prior filing. The disclosure is as of May 15, 2026, and 13D/G positions are "as last disclosed." But the direction is clear. Berkshire has largely exited a position it held for years. Capital World Investors, meanwhile, has moved the other way, lifting its stake to 7.2% from 3.8%.
BlackRock added 420,325 shares in its most recent reported period. Citadel trimmed by 893,118 shares. Point72 added 571,482.
Short interest is unchanged from the previous report at 5.5% of the free float. The month-on-month build of 33.7% remains in place. Availability sits at 3,956%, meaning the lending market is not a factor. Cost to borrow dropped 62% over the past week to 0.14%. Short sellers are adding by conviction, not mechanical pressure.
ORTEX also forecasts a 47% chance that STZ joins the CRSP US Small index at the December 2026 Quarterly Review, which would require $316M of tracker buying. Simultaneously, ORTEX puts the same 47% chance on share count decreases in CRSP US Large and CRSP US Mid, implying $251M of tracker selling across those two. The stock is currently 1.2% above the price that decides the CRSP rule, at $124.90.
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