WSE Options Signal Bullish Tilt Ahead of Tomorrow's Print

WSE heads into its October 15 earnings release with options traders positioned more bullishly than usual, even as short sellers quietly build exposure.

The most striking signal is in options. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.27, well below its 20-day average of 0.39, reflecting unusually heavy call-side demand relative to puts. That skew sits on the low end of the past year's range, with the 52-week PCR high touching 1.47. Investors are not hedging defensively into this print. The stock has followed through on that sentiment, adding 2.3% on the day, 3.9% on the week and 1.7% over the past month to close at $12.22. Borrow conditions offer little friction on the short side: the cost to borrow is negligible at 0.52%, and availability is effectively unconstrained, with shares freely available in the lending pool.

That relaxed borrow picture does not quite match the short interest trend, which is worth watching. Short positioning has risen 18% over the past week and 40% over the past month, reaching 0.45% of the free float. At that absolute level, bearish conviction is limited. But the rate of change is accelerating, and the ORTEX short score has edged up to 28 over the past two weeks. Neither reading signals a crowded short, yet the build is real and has coincided with the approach of the print.

The bullish macro case for Wise rests on its positioning as a structural beneficiary of growing cross-border payment volumes, a profitable business with strong customer retention and room to expand fee-based services. Bears point to growth normalisation after the post-pandemic surge, rising competitive pressure from banks and newer fintech entrants, and a PE multiple of roughly 17.8x that leaves limited room for disappointment. Forward EPS estimates are tracking near the top of the peer universe on a 12-month growth basis, ranking in the 99th percentile, but the 90-day EPS momentum percentile has slipped to 33, suggesting near-term estimate revisions have softened.

The ownership register shows concentrated strategic stakes. Kristo Kaarmann, co-founder and CEO, holds 18.2% of the class per his last Schedule 13G filing, and Baillie Gifford disclosed a 10.5% passive stake in June 2026. These are as-last-disclosed positions around the 5% disclosure threshold and may not reflect current holdings. Orbis Investment Management added nearly 10 million shares in the period to June 2026, reaching 5.5% of the class. On the insider front, the only open-market activity in the trailing 90 days was discretionary selling by the Chief Product Officer and Chief Technology Officer in mid-July, totalling around $1.3 million net, shortly after the prior earnings event.

The earnings report tomorrow will test whether Wise's volume and take-rate trajectory can justify the bullish options skew, or whether the creeping short build over the past month reflects better-informed caution.