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IMAX arrives at its October 23 earnings date with a genuine tug of war: short sellers added positions again this week while the analyst community simultaneously raised targets, creating one of the cleaner bull-bear divides in the entertainment space right now.
The short-side pressure has continued to build since the last note filed on October 7. Short interest jumped 6.9% in a single session on October 13 and now stands at 12.8% of the free float, up from 12.4% a week ago. That is around 6.9 million shares net short, and the level has been climbing steadily for the past month. The borrow market, however, sends a different message. Availability is at 310%, meaning roughly three shares are available for every one currently lent out. That is actually looser than the 256% reading cited last week, and well above the 52-week trough of 90%. Cost to borrow has eased to 0.42%, down nearly 19% on the week. The picture is the same as before: conviction from the short side, but no squeeze pressure and no urgency from the lending market. The ORTEX short score has pulled back slightly to 62.2 from 65.3 a week ago, consistent with the modest near-term pause in the build.
Options are telling a less defensive story than usual. The put/call ratio is at 1.58, slightly below its 20-day average of 1.72, and the z-score is essentially flat at -0.19. The contrast with the September pattern is notable: the PCR ran above 3.9 for several weeks before collapsing sharply on September 21, and the current reading reflects a much more balanced book. That is not a bullish signal on its own, but it does suggest options traders are not rushing for downside cover ahead of the print.
The analyst community is firmly in the other camp. Wedbush raised its target to $60 from $54 this morning while maintaining Outperform, and Rosenblatt held its $65 Buy unchanged on the same day. B. Riley raised to $64 earlier in the week, StoneX lifted to $65 last week, and Morgan Stanley initiated at Overweight with a $63 target in late September. Goldman Sachs remains the outlier, sitting at Neutral with a $50 target it raised from $42 in early September. The mean price target is now $57.50 against a current price of $51.66, implying roughly 11% to the consensus figure. The bull case from the Street centres on the Q3 box office print: global IMAX box office reached $712 million in the quarter, with The Odyssey alone driving $540 million in cumulative IMAX box office. At that level of revenue throughput, the marginal economics are described as carrying roughly 85% AEBITDA margin, with estimates pointing to $105 million of AEBITDA for Q3. Bears flag the flip side: the business remains hostage to blockbuster supply, China exposure adds FX and regulatory tail risk, and Q1 and Q2 both missed in China. EPS momentum is strong, ranking in the 87th percentile on the 12-month forward basis, and analyst recommendation divergence ranks in the 95th percentile, meaning the bullish skew of ratings is unusually pronounced relative to peers.
The activist angle remains live. Kevin Douglas, who filed a Schedule 13D in January 2026 and amended it in March, holds a disclosed stake of 15.5%, trimmed from 16.5%. As the largest single holder on the register, Douglas's continued presence carries weight, though his most recent filing showed a reduction rather than an addition. On the insider side, the 90-day net flow is negative: the CLO sold $1.16 million worth of stock in September, the CFO sold $1.09 million in late August, and CEO Richard Gelfond executed a large option exercise and same-day sale of $10.9 million in August under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan. The 10b5-1 designation matters for the Gelfond trade as it was scheduled in advance, but the breadth of discretionary selling across the C-suite is worth flagging. None of the trades signals panic, but there are no open-market buyers in the recent history to offset the pattern.
Earnings are in nine days. The last comparable print on July 23 produced a 10.4% single-day gain and a 21.1% five-day move. The one before it, on July 24, added 2.6% on the day and 8.8% over five days. That historical reaction pattern has rewarded holders in recent quarters. What to watch at the October 23 release is whether Q4 guidance, which the bear case trims to $375 million in global box office and $58 million in AEBITDA, can hold up against a slate that has so far outperformed expectations.
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Open IMAX on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data and reviewed by the ORTEX team. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
