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BMNR, the bitcoin immersion-cooling miner, has seen its short thesis unravel sharply this week: short interest has fallen faster than at any point since early September, and the bears who were rebuilding positions just days ago appear to be covering.
The reversal in positioning is the defining story. Short interest has dropped 36% over the past week to 10.6% of the free float, the lowest reading since late August. That is a material shift from the previous note published October 7, which flagged shorts holding firm at 16.5% of float after a period of deliberate rebuilding. Since then, the covering has been aggressive: from above 47 million shares as recently as October 5, the position has fallen to just over 30 million. The ORTEX short score has responded in kind, dropping from 54.9 a week ago to 48.8, retreating from elevated territory toward a more neutral reading. This looks less like a mechanical squeeze and more like bears reassessing the thesis after the stock's Q3 earnings miss reset expectations.
The lending market confirms the story has changed. Availability has expanded to 222%, up 24% on the week, meaning there are now roughly two shares available to borrow for every one already shorted. That is well above the 52-week tightest point of 48.8%, and nowhere near conditions that would force covering. Borrowing costs remain negligible at 0.45%, essentially unchanged over the month. Bears who want to rebuild can do so cheaply and freely. The covering looks voluntary.
Options positioning is calm and adds little to the directional read. The put/call ratio is 0.44, fractionally below its 20-day average of 0.45, and sits near the middle of its 52-week range. There is no meaningful hedging demand visible, and no unusual call buying that would suggest a squeeze play is being set up from the long side.
The stock itself is down 10% on the week to $23.49, with the broader peer group similarly weak. MSTR fell 7.5% over the same period, and BTCS dropped more than 16%. BTCT was the worst performer in the group, off nearly 27%. Against that backdrop, BMNR's relative resilience is modest but real. The Q3 earnings miss and guidance cut, flagged in the most recent company note, appear to have cleared some of the bearish overhang rather than deepened it. The one-day earnings reaction last quarter was a positive 7.7%, and the five-day move was also positive, suggesting the stock can recover quickly after a sharp reset.
On the activist register, MOZAYYX UGP, LLC holds a Schedule 13D stake at 9.99% of shares, filed in July 2025. That filing carries activist intent and remains the most newsworthy ownership fact on the register. Peter Thiel's stake has been reduced to 0.9% from 9.1% per a November 2025 amendment, a significant reduction. Vanguard Capital Management crossed the 5% threshold with a 13G filing in April 2026. As always, these stakes reflect positions as last disclosed around the 5% threshold; holders dropping below that level may exit without a further filing. BlackRock and State Street were both material buyers in recent quarters, with BlackRock adding over 16 million shares as of September 30 and State Street adding more than 6 million. That institutional accumulation at index and quant managers runs counter to the bear narrative.
With earnings next due November 20, the question heading into that print is whether the short-covering seen this week reflects genuine capitulation or simply tactical position adjustment ahead of what has historically been a volatile reporting event for this name.
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