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Bloom Energy heads into its October 22 earnings date with a stock that has dropped 11% on the week to $263.45, short sellers who covered heavily through September now quietly rebuilding, and options traders maintaining a consistently defensive skew.
The short-side dynamic has shifted since the previous note. A week ago, short interest had fallen to roughly 9.7% of the free float on around 23 million shares, and the direction of travel was clearly toward covering. That covering continued through early this week, briefly pushing positions down toward 20.2 million shares, but Tuesday saw an uptick back to 20.6 million, or 8.7% of the float. The one-week change is still down 10%, so the retreat from September's peak of around 27 million shares remains the dominant trend. But the single-day addition of 2.1% on Tuesday hints that some bears are returning as the stock pulls back. Borrow costs have more than doubled over the past month to 0.46%, though that number belongs in context: it remains well below 1%, a level most practitioners treat as a non-event. Availability, at roughly 972% of outstanding short interest, means the lending pool is far from strained. There is no mechanical squeeze pressure building here.
Options positioning has been stable and consistently cautious. The put/call ratio is running at 1.14, modestly above its 20-day average of 1.10 and roughly one standard deviation elevated, sitting in the upper third of its 52-week range between 0.63 and 1.43. The read is not alarm, but it is not complacency either. Investors are paying for protection going into the print.
The Street has been actively revising upward. UBS raised its target to $350 from $325 last week, keeping a Buy rating. Barclays lifted its Equal-Weight target to $308 from $276, and Mizuho, which carried the most aggressive move in the recent window, pushed its Outperform target to $351 from $242. Against those upgrades sits Jefferies, which raised its Hold target to $264, effectively flagging that even after lifting estimates it sees the stock as roughly fairly valued at current levels. The consensus mean target of $283 is now above the current price of $263, having been below it for much of the rally. Bulls point to FY26 revenue guidance of $3.4bn to $3.8bn, gross margins around 34%, and the capacity expansion signal from the second Fremont facility lease. Bears note that the stock was trading at roughly 155 times consensus 2026 EBITDA before this week's pullback, a level that prices in near-flawless execution from a company whose top two customers represented 39% of 2024 revenue combined. The EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed about 2 points over the past 30 days to 49 times, and the trailing P/E of 59 times reflects a genuine earnings base that did not exist 18 months ago. EPS momentum ranks in the 95th percentile on a 90-day basis and the 84th on 30 days, the highest-quality aspect of the current setup.
One name on the shareholder register worth noting: SK ecoplant, a South Korean clean-energy firm, is on the Schedule 13D register with a 4.7% stake, filed most recently in August 2025. A 13D filing signals activist or strategic intent rather than a passive position. Separately, BlackRock added nearly 4 million shares in the quarter to September 30 to bring its holding to 6.26%, and JP Morgan Asset Management added 4.7 million shares in the same period. Those are meaningful additions. On the insider side, the most recent open-market activity has been selling: the Chief Commercial Officer sold $2.3 million in shares on October 1 under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan, and several other officers sold in mid-September, also under plans. Plan-driven sales carry less signal than discretionary ones, but the net 90-day insider position is a disposal of roughly 90,000 shares worth about $21.8 million.
The last earnings print, on July 30, produced a one-day move of plus 25.7% and a five-day move of plus 39.8%. The print before that went the other way, falling 13% on the day before recovering 21% over five days. Both reactions were large in absolute terms. With the stock now 11% below its recent high and earnings eight days out, the question for the next session is whether the pullback has reset expectations enough to change how either side is positioned going into the release.
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