Edited by Peter Hillerberg2 min readStories are generated from ORTEX data and reviewed by the ORTEX team. How we publish
Canada's vehicle registers and US inflation data told contrasting stories in August and September 2026. Together they set the backdrop for a clutch of automotive earnings reports due next week.
Canadian new truck sales hit 150,161 units in August 2026, according to the Canadian vehicle registration dataset. That is the largest August on record since 2002, beating the previous best of 145,110 set in August 2025. Zero-emission vehicle sales in Canada also surged, reaching 22,716 units in August 2026, up 55% on the same month a year earlier.
That demand picture sits alongside a deteriorating price backdrop in the US. The Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U dataset shows core inflation (all items less food and energy) reached 339.287 in September 2026, its highest reading since the series began in 1997. The US CPI annual rate rose to 3.7% in September 2026, the highest September reading in two years and up from 3.0% a year earlier.
The consumer credit trust filings tracked by ORTEX show a clear divide at the company level. auto loan delinquencies were 1.2 standard deviations above their own history as of 29 September 2026. ran in the opposite direction, with its equivalent reading 0.8 standard deviations below its own history on the same date.
ONCY also appeared in the regulatory filings data. Trial completion date slippage for Oncocyte was 1.1 standard deviations below its own history as of 29 September 2026, suggesting pipeline timelines are running ahead of the norm.
Several automotive companies report in the next seven days. For each, ORTEX has measured the relevant vehicle registration series as a leading indicator of revenue in out-of-sample backtests.
German car registrations, which lead GM revenue by 15 days with a strong fit, are running 133% above the same quarter last year, with all three months of the quarter in. The same German series leads TSLA revenue by 43 days with a strong fit and is running 269% above the prior-year quarter, again with three of three months complete.
For RNO (Renault), Austrian car registrations lead revenue by 32 days and are running 6% above the prior-year quarter. Dutch registrations, a separate moderate-fit lead for Renault, are running 19% below.
VOLCAR B faces a mixed picture. Finnish car registrations lead its revenue by 22 days and are running 9% below last year. India registrations, a 56-day lead with moderate fit, are running 9% above.
MARUTI and 500570 both report on 23 October. India registrations lead Maruti revenue by 58 days (weak fit) and are running 31% above the prior-year quarter. For Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Japanese car registrations lead revenue by 34 days with a strong fit and are running 16% above, while Dutch registrations are running 48% below. These are where the data points so far, not forecasts of the print.
ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data and reviewed by the ORTEX team. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
