Stories are generated from ORTEX data and reviewed by the ORTEX team. How we publish
Toyota Motor reports on October 30. The signals converging this week cut against the short-side narrative: a record month for Dutch car sales, a put/call ratio that has dropped to its most call-heavy reading in weeks, and a borrow market that remains loose despite a short-interest tick higher.
The standout data point this week comes from RDW, the Netherlands Vehicle Authority. Toyota registered 3,470 new passenger cars in the Netherlands in September, the largest September since records began in 2011. The quarter as a whole (July to September, all three months in) ran 9.5% above the same period last year, per RDW data. Across Europe, Toyota's battery-electric volumes are also climbing: KBA data shows German BEV registrations for the brand up 286% on September last year, and Traficom figures put the Finnish figure up 4,311% year on year, though off a smaller base. None of the European registration datasets have been shown to lead Toyota's reported revenue in backtesting, so this is volume colour, not a revenue signal. With earnings two weeks out, it adds texture to the demand picture.
The options market has moved in the same direction. Toyota's put/call ratio stood at 0.86 on October 15, down from a 20-day mean of 0.91 and sitting 1.8 standard deviations below that mean. The 52-week low is 0.59, so there is room to run further, but the shift toward calls over the past two weeks is clear. October 30 earnings appear to be the anchor: call buyers are positioning for a move, not hedging against one.
Short interest has climbed 16% over the past week to roughly 1.08 million shares. That sounds large in percentage terms. In absolute terms, it remains small relative to Toyota's float, and the borrow market tells the same story. Availability stands at 83%, meaning roughly 1.5 million shares remain available to lend against the 1.08 million already borrowed. Cost to borrow has fallen 73% over the past week to 0.76%, after the brief spike around the September 29 ex-dividend date that the previous notes described in detail. The short score sits at 49.1, mid-range. None of this reads as a conviction short build.
Note: Previous ORTEX notes on Toyota described availability in the 1,400 to 2,000% range, reflecting data on the Japanese-listed shares (Toyota Motor). The figures here are for the NYSE-listed ADR (TM), which has a tighter but still relaxed borrow pool.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open TM on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data and reviewed by the ORTEX team. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
