Edited by Peter Hillerberg3 min readStories are generated from ORTEX data and reviewed by the ORTEX team. How we publish
The dominant story this week is simple: US-focused ETFs pulled in $32.9B in net flows over seven days, more than four times the next largest geography. China came second at $7.3B. Together, they account for nearly all the meaningful inflows on the geographic board.
US funds posted a flow imbalance score of 72.5, well above the 65 threshold that signals strong buying pressure. China matched it at 73.6. Taiwan added $2.9B, with a near-perfect imbalance score of 95.2, suggesting near-universal buying among funds in that category.
The contrast with Europe is sharp. Developed Europe posted a $723M net outflow this week, with a flow imbalance of just 38.4. Japan also shed $612M on a weekly basis. Both reversals matter because over three months, Developed Europe had been quietly in positive territory at $8.0B net inflows, and Japan's three-month deficit of $11.9B shows the drain is ongoing, not new.
Brazil was a standout on the smaller end: $1.9B of net inflows and a flow imbalance of 97.1, meaning almost all activity was buying. Canada added $614M. Both hold up over three months as well.
India flipped from a three-month net outflow of $1.2B to a small but continued weekly deficit of $78M. The direction has not changed, but the pressure looks persistent.
Information Technology led all sectors this week with $5.4B in net inflows and a flow imbalance of 65.3, just crossing into buying-pressure territory. Over three months, Tech has stayed positive at $4.7B, though the weekly read is notably stronger, suggesting a recent acceleration.
Energy posted $1.1B of weekly inflows with a strong imbalance of 86.5. Health Care added $827M. Consumer Staples brought in $581M. All three lean defensive or commodity-driven, which is a noteworthy combination alongside the Tech inflow.
Industrials is the sharpest reversal. Over three months, Industrials ran a modest deficit of $611M. This week, outflows hit $1.1B with a flow imbalance of just 30.3, deep into selling territory. Real Estate also bled $385M on the week despite a positive three-month picture of $3.2B, a clear short-term reversal.
Financials attracted essentially no net money this week ($4.8M), though it was the biggest three-month loser across all sectors at minus $6.6B. The sector has not recovered its footing.
GM reports on 20 October. ORTEX alternative data shows German car registrations, a dataset that has led GM revenue by 15 days with a strong historical fit, running at plus 133% on the same quarter last year across all three months measured. That reading sits alongside the ongoing weakness in GM auto-loan delinquencies, which stand 1.2 standard deviations above the trust peer group as of 29 September.
Equities dominated at $52.6B in weekly net inflows. Fixed income added a substantial $14.2B, continuing its three-month trend of $298.5B net. The two asset classes are moving together, which points to broad-based buying rather than a rotation out of bonds into stocks.
Commodities attracted only $383M this week, a sharp slowdown from $30.6B over three months. The weekly flow imbalance of 55.1 is nearly neutral.
On strategy, Growth funds took in $2.7B this week with an imbalance of 85.6. Active strategies added $4.7B, consistent with their strong three-month trend of $171.4B. ESG continued to bleed, shedding $409M this week despite a positive three-month cumulative of $8.9B. Low Volatility also saw $257M of outflows with an imbalance of 18.5, one of the weakest readings of the week.
The overall tone is risk-on in equities, with selective defensive positioning in Energy and Health Care, but a clear pullback from Industrials and Europe that breaks with the recent three-month trend.
ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data and reviewed by the ORTEX team. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
