Semis Bear Bets and Earnings Puts Dominate Options Flow

Negative options bets are piling into semiconductors ahead of a packed earnings week. NVDA and MU top the bearish options flow rankings by dollar value, with put positioning outweighing calls over the past seven days. Both stocks sit with RSIs below 42, reinforcing the cautious tone.

TSLA reports on 21 October. It appears in both the heavy positive and heavy negative options flow lists, reflecting a split market. ORTEX data shows a short score of 31 and analysts pricing in 9.8% upside. German car registration data, which ORTEX Alt Data identifies as a leading indicator for Tesla revenue with a 43-day lag, is running 269% above the same quarter last year across three consecutive months. That reading is pointing sharply higher, adding fuel to the bullish options case.

GM reports on 20 October. The same German car dataset leads GM revenue by 15 days and is running 133% above year-ago levels. Analysts see 24.5% upside. Bearish options bets are present, but the earnings-led catalyst skews positioning in both directions.

FN carries a separate risk. ORTEX Index Rebalance Radar shows Fabrinet's probability of deletion from MSCI World jumped from 8% to 49% overnight. A confirmed deletion would force $826M of index selling. Options traders watching for forced flows may find the name of interest at Monday's MSCI cut-off.

CHWY drew attention in the short interest community this week. Bears have been accumulating. Any options activity around the name would be consistent with that bearish tilt.

The broader tone in semiconductor options is defensive ahead of results. AMD and INTC both carry RSIs below 45, with bearish bets in the top tier. EU inflation rising to a two-year September high of 3.8% adds a macro overlay that is keeping hedging demand elevated into the week.