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Lucid Group has lost another 17% this week alone, and the short book continues to tighten its grip rather than ease.
Since the note published October 8, the numbers have moved in one direction. Short interest has risen from 28.4% to 30.3% of free float, representing roughly 98.3 million shares. That is up 6.8% on the week and up 77% over the past month, with the September jump from 55 million shares to the current level now fully entrenched. The ORTEX short score has climbed to 82.5, up from 78.5 at the time of the last note and the highest reading in the series. The score's steady drift higher, from 78.3 on October 2 to 82.5 on October 15, reflects a position that has continued to add without any sign of rotation. FINRA's most recent fortnightly data puts days to cover at 8.6, unchanged in character from the 8.1 reading two weeks ago.
The lending market remains effectively sealed. Availability is at 0.04%, meaning fewer than one share is left to borrow for every 2,500 already lent out. That level has not risen meaningfully above 0.5% for over a month. Cost to borrow has also moved higher, reaching 10.7% on Thursday after spiking to 11.2% on Wednesday. That is up 29% on the week and 59% over the past month, the clearest sign that new demand for borrows is still arriving even as supply is exhausted. The combination of near-zero availability and rising cost to borrow confirms the same dynamic as last week: existing shorts are trapped, and any new entrant is paying a premium for a position they cannot easily replicate.
What has changed since the last note is that the Street has now moved to catch the stock's new price reality. Morgan Stanley lowered its price target to $3.00 this week, from $5.00, while maintaining its Underweight rating. RBC Capital cut its target from $7.00 to $4.00 on Monday, also keeping its Sector Perform rating. The mean analyst target across the coverage universe now sits at $7.39, which still implies material upside from the current $3.13 close, though that average is pulled up by Citigroup's remaining Buy rating with an $11.00 target, set in August. The bull case hinges on the FY26 production guidance of 25,000 to 27,000 units and the Uber robotaxi partnership targeting at least 35,000 Lucid vehicles. The bear case points to Q1's 3,093 deliveries against 5,500 produced, a negative 110% gross margin, the supplier-related stop-sale, and suspension of 2026 guidance. Options positioning has been persistently defensive, with the put/call ratio at 1.82, almost exactly its 20-day average of 1.82, suggesting that the heavily bearish options skew is now just the baseline for this name rather than a fresh development.
The institutional register adds one note of colour. The Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia remains on the Schedule 13D register with a disclosed 56.85% stake, down from a prior 60.77% filing. That is an activist-level disclosure and the most structurally important single fact about the cap table. Uber Technologies holds a 9.6% stake per its April 13G filing, a position taken alongside the robotaxi partnership announcement. Neither holder has signalled any change in posture this week. The ORTEX short score's rank of 2 out of 100 in the universe, and a days-to-cover rank of 10, both place Lucid in the most aggressively shorted cohort available, and the factor score picture offers no offset, with quality and momentum both deeply negative.
November 6 is the date to watch. That is the next earnings event, 20 days away, and with short interest at 30% of float and the lending market closed to new entrants, the print will determine whether the position jams or unwinds.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
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