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The Trade Desk reports after the close on October 19 with short sellers holding nearly a fifth of its free float, options traders tilted toward calls, and the stock down 7% in Friday's session alone.
Short interest tells the dominant story heading into the print. At 18.6% of free float, the short position is large enough that any positive surprise carries meaningful squeeze potential. The position has declined steadily from a peak above 19% in early September, shedding roughly 7.5 million shares over the past six weeks. That gradual erosion suggests some bears have quietly reduced exposure rather than pressing into the catalyst. The borrow market supports this read: availability is extremely loose at over 2,100%, meaning more than twenty shares are available to borrow for every one currently lent out. Cost to borrow has risen 61% on the week but remains negligible at 0.49%, so there is no sign of squeeze pressure in the lending market.
Options positioning has shifted slightly since the previous article on October 14, when the put/call ratio hit its 52-week low of 0.31. It has since edged up to 0.34, still well below the 20-day average of 0.35 and near the bullish extreme of the past year. The direction of travel is marginally less one-sided than it was four days ago, but call buyers remain in clear control. That gap between bullish options positioning and an elevated short position is the central tension heading into Monday's close.
The fundamental debate is severe. Bulls point to cost savings from the 15% workforce reduction, expected to deliver roughly $150 million in annual savings and lift adjusted EBITDA estimates meaningfully. CTV revenue grew more than 50% in EMEA and APAC last quarter, and the resolution of the Publicis dispute removes a significant overhang. Bears have the sharper near-term case: revenue growth collapsed from 27% in Q3 2024 to 3% in Q2 2026, and Q3 guidance of $650 million implies a 12.1% year-over-year decline. Three CFOs since January and a CRO departure after seven months have rattled execution confidence. UBS, the most bullish remaining major voice, trimmed its target to $15 just this week while keeping its Buy rating. The consensus mean target of $13.53 sits barely above the current price of $12.23, leaving almost no buffer.
The last two earnings prints produced one-day declines of 24% and 27% respectively, with five-day moves of roughly 20% and 23% in the same direction. The stock is already down 18% over the past month and has shed more than 60% year-to-date. The print on October 19 will therefore test whether any of that damage has already priced in what the revenue trajectory implies, or whether a third consecutive shock is still ahead.
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