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TTM Technologies heads into its October 22 earnings release with short sellers accelerating positions into a stock that has lost nearly a quarter of its value in a single week.
The most striking development in the positioning data is the pace of short-side accumulation. Short interest has climbed 23% over the past week to 4.1% of the free float, and is up 49% over the past month. Yet the borrow market tells a calmer story: cost to borrow is a modest 0.36% and availability is extremely loose at over 7,000%, meaning there is no friction whatsoever for new shorts to establish positions. Availability at this level signals the short build is driven by conviction, not a squeeze dynamic. Options positioning has also turned more defensive than usual into the print. The put/call ratio rose to 0.58 on Friday, more than two standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.47, a reading consistent with elevated demand for downside protection. The stock closed at $93.88 on Friday, down 7% on the day and 22% on the week. Peers confirmed this was partly a sector move: fell 18% on the week, dropped 19%, and shed 13%, though TTMI's decline was sharper than most.
The bull and bear cases diverge sharply on whether the stock's recent re-rating has created an entry point or merely reset expectations to a still-ambitious level. Bulls point to Data Center and Networking, which represented roughly half of Q3 sales and is on track to more than double in 2026 to over $2 billion, alongside an Aerospace and Defense backlog of $1.7 billion carrying a 1.30 book-to-bill. Q2 free cash flow of $46 million and net leverage of only 0.9x reinforce the case that TTMI can fund growth without straining the balance sheet. Bears counter that the stock was pricing in a 17x out-year earnings multiple before last week's selloff, and that cyclical exposure in automotive (now 8% of revenues and shrinking) and softer MII mix signal near-term headwinds that the valuation had not fully absorbed. The PE multiple has compressed by more than five points over the past 30 days, reflecting exactly that concern. Truist Securities raised its target to $231 on October 13, keeping its Buy rating. The mean analyst target across coverage remains at $211, a level that implies substantial upside from Friday's close but also one set before last week's sharp decline.
Two insider trades from late August add an unusual dimension to the setup. CEO Edwin Roks made an open-market purchase of 10,000 shares at $111.77, a $1.1 million discretionary buy with no 10b5-1 plan attached. A week later, director Rex Geveden bought a further 5,000 shares at $104.90. Neither trade was filed under a pre-arranged plan, which makes them cleaner signals of management conviction. The stock has since fallen below both purchase prices.
What the print will test is whether TTMI's Data Center and Networking acceleration is durable enough to justify rebuilding the multiple from the current $93 level, and whether A&D backlog conversion can offset the ongoing compression in automotive and MII mix.
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