WaFd shorts build as analysts cut targets and EverBank deal clouds the outlook

Short sellers have added aggressively to positions in WAFD over the past month. The stock is down 11.7% in October and two analysts lowered their price targets this morning after earnings.

Shorts pile in post-earnings

Short interest in WaFd has risen 42% over the past month and now stands at 7.07% of free float. The weekly pace has been sharp: positions are up 24% in the past week alone, the highest SI level in months.

The cost to borrow rose 64% over the past week to 0.41%. That remains low in absolute terms. Availability sits at 1,495%, meaning there are roughly 15 shares available to borrow for every one already lent out. The lending market is not tight. Shorts are building because of conviction, not a supply squeeze.

Analysts cut after the print

Piper Sandler's Matthew Clark lowered his price target to $31 from $32 this morning, maintaining a Neutral rating. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods' Kelly Motta made a larger cut, dropping her target to $34 from $40, also at Market Perform. The mean analyst target now stands at $32.50, about 11% above Friday's close of $29.15.

The earnings-day move was modest, just 0.83% on October 15. The real damage came from the target reductions that followed.

The bear case centres on integration risk. WaFd is in the middle of a reverse merger with EverBank Financial Corp. The apparent 29% merger accretion assumes all cost synergies are captured, but management does not expect full integration until mid-2028. Net interest margin stood at 2.81% last quarter and is expected to reset modestly lower. The bank also added borrowings averaging $2.9 billion to fund securities at roughly a 1.00% net spread, a funding trade that analysts question.

Index deletion looms

ORTEX forecasts an 84% probability that WAFD will be deleted from the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000, and an 80% probability of removal from the S&P SmallCap 600, all linked to the EverBank takeover agreement. The estimated trade dates fall around March 30, 2027 (dates are estimated, not confirmed by index providers).

The Russell 2000 deletion alone implies roughly $279 million in forced selling, equivalent to 10.3 days of normal trading volume. In 351 similar past deletions tracked by ORTEX, the median stock moved -4.3% between announcement and effective date, with 80% moving in the expected direction and trade-day volume running at 9.1 times the normal rate. That is history, not a forecast for this event.

Retail attention spikes

Wikipedia page views and ORTEX stock-page traffic for WAFD are running 2.7 standard deviations above their 90-day average as of today. That is elevated retail attention, not a revenue signal.

FDIC call report data shows WaFd's total assets have risen for three consecutive quarters, reaching $27.6 billion as of the April 2026 period. Total deposits have fallen for three consecutive quarters to $21.1 billion over the same stretch, a trend worth watching alongside the funding concerns analysts flagged after earnings.

Data summary

• SI % of free float: 7.07%, up 24% in one week and 42% over one month
• Cost to borrow: 0.41%, up 64% week on week, remains at historically low levels
• Availability: 1,495%, ample supply in the lending pool
• Stock price: $29.15, down 11.7% this month
• KBW target cut to $34 (from $40); Piper Sandler to $31 (from $32), both today
• Mean analyst target: $32.50
• Retail attention z-score: 2.7 above 90-day average
• ORTEX index rebalance forecast: 84% Russell 2000 deletion probability, $279M implied flow