RELX Options Signal Unusual Bullishness Ahead of Thursday's Print

RELX heads into its October 23 earnings release having added 17% over the past month, with options markets now flashing one of the most aggressively bullish positioning signals of the past year.

The standout data point is in options. The put/call ratio collapsed to 0.19 on Monday, more than four standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.65. That is the lowest defensive reading in over a year, against a 52-week range of 0.005 to 1.40. The move is not a gradual drift: the PCR had been remarkably stable, running in a narrow band around 0.67 for most of October, before dropping sharply on the final session before the print. Call positioning now dominates by a wide margin, reflecting either genuine bullish conviction or short-dated upside speculation into the release. The stock itself has followed through on that mood, rising 7.4% on the week and 0.5% on Monday to close at $39.25.

The lending market confirms the absence of meaningful bearish pressure. Borrow availability is running at 442%, meaning there are more than four shares available to borrow for every share already lent out. That has loosened considerably from the 181% reading in mid-September, when availability was at its tightest of the past year. Cost to borrow has eased to 0.80%, down from around 1.05% a week ago, and sits at a level that makes shorting mechanically cheap. The short score has drifted lower through October, dropping from 40.1 to 37.0 over the past two weeks, consistent with a gradual unwind of whatever modest bearish positioning existed. This is not a stock with a short-selling thesis: the borrow market is comfortable, and the direction of travel is toward less, not more, skepticism.

A recent RELX trading note (October 10) flagged that the prior week's rally to 270p was sector-wide rather than stock-specific, with peers Wolters Kluwer and Experian posting similarly large moves. Since then, the stock has extended its gains. The most recent company note, published on October 19, referenced Q3 revenue of $2.84bn, up 8% year-on-year, with adjusted operating margin expanding to 38.2% and full-year guidance raised on strength in legal, risk and compliance divisions. Citigroup upgraded the NYSE-listed shares to Buy in April 2026, and Barclays moved to Overweight in March 2025. The analyst consensus data in the system carries a stale overall rating, so any formal consensus-level view should be treated cautiously, but the direction of recent named moves has been uniformly positive.

The dividend factor score ranks in the 93rd percentile, and the short score rank (84th percentile) reflects how uncommonly light the bearish positioning is relative to peers. Historical earnings reactions offer a useful reference: the July 2026 print produced a 5.1% one-day gain and an 11.8% five-day gain, while the May 2026 print went the other way, with a 5.5% one-day drop and a 12.6% five-day fall. The range of outcomes has been wide.

Thursday's print will test whether the Q3 numbers that drove last week's guidance raise can justify a stock that has re-rated 17% higher in a single month, with call buyers now holding the most optimistic options posture of the past year.