Mobileye Bears Dig In Before Q3 Print

MBLY heads into its October 22 earnings release with a significant short position still building, even as the stock trades near multi-year lows.

Short sellers have added conviction sharply over the past month. Short interest climbed more than 20% in the past 30 days and now accounts for roughly 20.6% of the free float, with the one-week jump of 11% reflecting a fresh wave of positioning ahead of the print. The official FINRA settlement figure puts days-to-cover at 6.5, a meaningful drag if sentiment shifts. Yet the borrow market itself is not under stress: availability is running at 585%, meaning there is roughly six times more stock available to lend than is currently borrowed, and the cost to borrow has stayed near 0.5%. Shorts can enter and exit cheaply. Options positioning adds little additional tension, with the put/call ratio at 0.52, barely above its 20-day average of 0.52 and well within the year's range of 0.33 to 0.72. The stock is down 10% over the past month and closed at $7.19, recovering just 5% on the week after a steeper slide.

The analyst debate has sharpened into something close to a downgrade cycle. The most telling move this week came from Evercore ISI, which cut its target from $16 to $11 while keeping an Outperform rating, a signal that even the stock's most vocal supporters are recalibrating the timing story. Morgan Stanley trimmed to $9, Goldman Sachs and UBS both moved to $8 and $7.50 respectively, and Barclays downgraded outright to Equal-Weight last month, slashing its target from $14 to $9. Against that, Citigroup initiated fresh coverage this week with a Buy and an $11 target, and EPS momentum over 90 days ranks in the 98th percentile, reflecting significant upward analyst revisions to forward earnings. The consensus mean target of $11.22 implies roughly 56% upside to the current price, but that spread between price and target is itself a measure of how far confidence has fallen. Bulls point to Q2's beat-and-raise, the $24.5 billion eight-year revenue pipeline, Stellantis design wins, and improving profitability under new Israeli R&D tax law. Bears counter that SuperVision ramp delays, volumes pushed from Porsche and Audi into late 2027, a CEO transition, and a deeply negative return on capital make the recovery timeline genuinely uncertain.

The ownership structure adds an unusual backdrop. CEO Amnon Shashua holds a Schedule 13D on the register, an activist-style filing that reflects his 7.3% stake filed in February 2026. Intel remains the dominant shareholder at approximately 76% of shares outstanding, a concentration that limits free-float trading and amplifies moves in either direction. Two directors made modest open-market purchases in July and August, at prices around $8.00 to $8.46 each. Those were small in dollar terms (roughly $100,000 each) but discretionary, not compensation-related grants. The ORTEX short score sits at 63.7, ranking in the bottom decile of the universe for short-related factors, reflecting the combination of elevated short interest and the recent upward trend in positions. As ever, Intel's stake is as last disclosed, and its plans for any further reduction remain the single largest structural variable overhanging the stock.

The print will test whether the Q2 recovery in revenue and margins was the start of a durable re-acceleration or a one-quarter event, with SuperVision shipment guidance for the second half the most closely watched number on the call.