Aeroméxico Heads Into Q3 With Bulls Outnumbering Bears

AERO reports Q3 results on October 20 with the options market leaning more bullish than at almost any point in the past year.

The clearest pre-print signal is in the put/call ratio, which has dropped to 0.07, well below its 20-day average of 0.11 and nearly 1.5 standard deviations beneath that mean. Calls outnumber puts by a wide margin, close to the most lopsided reading of the past 52 weeks. That tilt reflects genuine demand for upside exposure rather than defensive hedging. The stock itself has given little away, down 0.6% on the day and 1.1% on the week but up 3% over the past month to $15.89.

The short side tells a more ambiguous story. Estimated shares short have climbed nearly 45% over the past month, and 29% over the past week, to roughly 942,000 shares. Yet in absolute terms the position remains modest and without a float percentage to anchor it. Borrow conditions do not suggest any conviction behind the recent build: cost to borrow has eased to 3.5%, down 24% over the past month, and availability is deep in positive territory at 3,115% of short interest, meaning there are more than 10 million shares available to lend against a short base well under one million. Nothing in the lending market points to a squeeze setup.

The debate between bulls and bears centres on a wide gap between price and potential. The stock has fallen roughly 28% year to date, yet the analyst consensus, anchored by Overweight ratings from Barclays and JP Morgan, carries a mean price target of $26.38, implying more than 65% upside from current levels. Those same analysts have been trimming targets through 2026: Barclays cut from $32 to $25 in March, and JP Morgan lowered from $28.50 to $26.50 in June. The pattern is one of sustained optimism paired with creeping caution on the pace of recovery. Jefferies initiated in June at Hold with a $20 target, the one dissenting voice in an otherwise bullish coverage universe. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 3.4x and a trailing PE of 9.6x make the valuation case straightforward on paper. The complication is the balance sheet: a deeply negative price-to-book of -10.4x reflects the lingering structural legacy of the airline's 2020 to 2023 bankruptcy and restructuring. AERO also ranks in the 92nd percentile for EPS surprise, suggesting it has consistently cleared a low bar.

The ownership structure is worth noting ahead of the print. Three large holders collectively control nearly 60% of the register. Apollo Global Management holds 21.8%, Ap Aguila Holdings added its full 18.9% stake in the most recent reporting period, and Delta Air Lines holds 18.7% via a Schedule 13G passive filing. Strategic Value Partners nearly doubled its position last quarter, adding 5.4 million shares to reach a 6.5% stake. That concentration means the float is thin and institutional sentiment firmly matters. On the insider side, the Chief Commercial Officer sold over 1.3 million shares between May and August at prices in the $1.50 to $1.58 range, a notable exit at prices well below where the stock trades today on the NYSE ADR. The price discrepancy between those insider transaction prices and the current $15.89 close suggests those trades were executed in the Mexican peso-denominated local listing rather than the ADR, and readers should treat the dollar comparisons with caution.

The print will test whether Aeroméxico's operational recovery in Q3 is enough to narrow the gap between a consensus that sees $26 fair value and a stock that the market has been willing to price at $16.