Earnings Season Kicks Off With Tesla in the Crosshairs

Autos and Tech Dominate the Week

The heaviest earnings calendar of the quarter is now open. GM reports Q3 results before the bell today. German car registration data, which leads GM revenue by 15 days with a strong fit, is running 133% above the same quarter last year across all three months. That is a firm tailwind heading into the print.

Tomorrow brings Tesla, the week's most closely watched name. The $1.4 trillion EV maker is down 21% year-to-date, and its RSI sits at 42. German car registrations, measured by ORTEX alt data to lead Tesla revenue by 43 days, are running at plus-269% on the same quarter last year. Options activity is building into the report, and put pressure is visible across the tape. Tonight, Netflix and Intuitive Surgical also print after the close.

Bears and China Watch

China held its Loan Prime Rate steady at 3.00% overnight. Both the 1-year and 5-year rates were left unchanged. The decision gives no new stimulus signal heading into a week when risk appetite is already stretched by earnings.

Mobileye carries the clearest bearish signal among today's reporters. Short interest is elevated, the stock is down 31% year-to-date, and put activity ahead of its Q3 print is heavy. Analysts see 56% upside, but the options market is not buying it.

Europe: Roche and Index Moves

Roche heads into its Q3 update on the back of a six-week rally. The Swiss pharma giant has run hard into the number, leaving little room for disappointment.

On the index front, Fabrinet's MSCI World deletion probability jumped from 49% to 90% overnight. At a $13 billion market cap, it sits 15% below the exit line. If confirmed on 11 November, trackers face $779 million of forced selling. Separately, Tata Motors' agreed cash tender for Iveco Group carries an 88% completion probability, with $227 million of total forced index selling if it closes.

Short Side

Short sellers added 4.3 percentage points to bets against Chewy, pushing its SI to 91.5% of free float. Wolfspeed sits at 82.6% but availability has fallen to zero, keeping a squeeze risk alive.