WaFd options market flashes extreme hedging demand

The put-call ratio on WAFD hit 1.56 on Monday, 3.65 standard deviations above its 20-day mean of 0.51. That is the highest options-market hedging signal of the past year. Combined with a short position sitting at 7.07% of free float and a stock down 12.3% in October, the data is aligning in one direction.

Options market sounds the loudest alarm

The PCR reading of 1.56 compares to a 52-week low of 0.08. Through most of September the ratio sat below 0.25. The jump is abrupt and extreme by any measure of this stock's own history. Options traders are paying heavily for downside protection. Whether that reflects outright bearish conviction or hedging tied to uncertainty around the EverBank acquisition is not clear from the data alone. What is clear is that demand for puts surged on Monday in a way the past year has not seen.

Short interest: positioning firms up

Short interest stands at 7.07% of free float as of October 16. Positions are up 24% over the past week and 42% over the past month, the highest level in months. The ORTEX short score sits at 49.4.

Availability remains very loose at 1,495%. That is roughly 15 shares available to borrow for every one already lent out. The cost to borrow is 0.41%, up 64% week on week, but still low in absolute terms. Shorts are adding because of conviction. The borrow market is not forcing their hand.

Index exits loom on the merger

ORTEX forecasts an 84% probability that WAFD is deleted from the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 following the agreed EverBank acquisition. The estimated effective date is March 31, 2027 (dates estimated, not confirmed by the index provider). Forced selling from index trackers tied to a Russell 2000 deletion is estimated at $279 million, or 10.3 days of normal trading volume. Past Russell 2000 deletions of this type have seen a median move of minus 4.3% between announcement and effective date, with 80% moving the expected way and trade-day volume running at 9.1 times normal.

The S&P SmallCap 600 deletion is given an 80% probability, with an estimated $354 million in tracker selling, equivalent to 13.2 days of volume.

Retail attention spikes

Wikipedia page views and ORTEX stock-page traffic combined are running 2.7 standard deviations above WAFD's own 90-day average. The stock is drawing unusual retail attention alongside institutional repositioning. FDIC call report data also shows total deposits have fallen for three consecutive quarters through June 2026.

Data summary

• Put-call ratio: 1.56, 52-week high, z-score 3.65 vs 20-day mean
• SI % of free float: 7.07%, up 24% week on week, up 42% month on month
• Availability: 1,495% (loose lending market)
• Cost to borrow: 0.41%, up 64% week on week, near historical lows
• Stock price: $28.42, down 12.3% in October
• Russell 2000 deletion: ORTEX puts probability at 84%, estimated $279M in tracker selling
• Next earnings: January 13, 2027