GCMG options skew turns extreme as short interest whipsaws

Options traders have rarely been this one-sided on GCM Grosvenor. The put-call ratio hit 0.0682 on October 19, sitting 3.78 standard deviations below its 20-day mean. That is the most extreme bullish skew in the options market the stock has seen in weeks, and it lands against a backdrop of sharp short-interest volatility and a fresh analyst target cut.

Calls dominate the options book

A PCR of 0.0682 means there is roughly one put for every fifteen calls in open interest. The 20-day average sits at 0.0723, itself already a low reading. The 52-week range runs from 0.0008 to 0.1702, so current positioning is deep in bullish territory without being at an all-time extreme. The signal is one-directional: options buyers are leaning heavily toward upside.

Short interest gyrates, borrow costs creep up

Short interest has been unusually volatile over the past week. It fell 35% in a single session to 1.5% of the free float, then reversed, rising 32.5% the following day to 2.05%. At that level it remains low in absolute terms, and the one-month trend is still sharply lower, down nearly 39%. The borrow market remains very loose: availability stood at over 9,999% on October 16, meaning there are vastly more shares available to lend than are currently borrowed.

Cost to borrow has moved in a different direction. It reached 0.9956% on October 16, up 81% over the prior week from 0.55% on October 9. That is a meaningful percentage move, though the absolute rate still sits in low-cost territory for the lending market. The previous article noted CTB at 0.83% and availability above 1,090%. Both figures have since updated: CTB has climbed further and availability has loosened considerably.

Analyst cut adds to the price gap

Piper Sandler's Crispin Love lowered his price target to $14.50 from $16.00 on October 19, while maintaining an Overweight rating. The mean analyst target across the coverage group is $15.125. The stock closed at $12.34 on October 19, down 1.75% on the day and 5.7% over the past week. That leaves GCMG trading roughly 23% below the consensus target, a gap that has widened as the stock drifted lower through the month.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management added 388,385 shares in its most recently reported period, the largest change among the top institutional holders. BlackRock added 252,291 shares in the same window. Both moves were reported as of late September or early October.

Earnings are scheduled for November 5. The stock moved 2.9% on the day after its August print.

Data summary

• PCR: 0.0682, z-score of -3.78 vs the 20-day mean, as of October 19
• SI % of free float: 2.05% as of October 16, down 39% over one month
• Borrow availability: above 9,999% on October 16, extremely loose
• Cost to borrow: 0.9956%, up 81% week-on-week
• Piper Sandler target cut to $14.50 from $16.00, Overweight maintained
• Next earnings: November 5