Earnings Fear Floods the Options Market

Nicolet Bankshares is flashing the loudest options signal of the day. Its put/call ratio spiked to 1.0, the highest since inception. That reading sits 4.3 standard deviations above its own 20-day mean of 0.13. For a mid-cap regional bank with a short interest days-to-cover of 11.1, that is a sharp and sudden shift toward downside protection.

The stress comes on a busy earnings day. Intuitive Surgical beat Q3 estimates but shares fell anyway. The stock has lost 23.5% year-to-date. Its RSI sits at 67.7, above the 60 level that often draws put sellers. Short interest days-to-cover stands at 1.1.

Chip stocks are generating the heaviest negative options bets in the US market this week. Micron Technology, NVIDIA, and Advanced Micro Devices all rank in the top names for negative options flow. Netflix shares fell on revenue growth concerns after its Q3 print. Its ORTEX short score stands at 31 and the stock is down 25.5% year-to-date.

Tesla reports Q3 results tomorrow. ORTEX alt data tracking German car registrations, a dataset that leads Tesla revenue by 43 days with a strong historical fit, is running 269% above the same quarter last year across all three months of the quarter. The options market shows negative bets among the top flows for the week, reflecting a stock down 18% year-to-date and carrying a $1.4 trillion market cap ahead of a key print.

General Motors reports today. The same German car registration dataset, which leads GM revenue by 15 days, is running 133% above the year-ago quarter for all three months.