Tesla Earnings and Nvidia's Aussie Bet Set the Tone

US Markets: Tesla Front and Centre

TSLA reports Q3 2026 results today, and the setup is bullish. ORTEX alt data shows German car registrations running 269% above the same quarter last year. That dataset leads Tesla revenue by 43 days, with all three months in. Options flow has been directionally bullish all week. Short interest sits at just 2.5% of free float, meaning bears have largely stepped aside ahead of the print.

NVDA is adding to the AI theme with a separate catalyst. The Information reported overnight that the chipmaker is in talks to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in Firmus, an Australian AI GPU cloud provider. Short interest on Nvidia is just 1.3% of free float. Options flow tied to AI infrastructure names has been bullish all week.

Short Sellers and Index Crosscurrents

CRWV is a standout on the short side. Its short interest jumped 3.1 percentage points in seven days to 22.2% of free float, even as it reports earnings this week. Bears are pressing despite easy borrowing conditions.

On analyst desks, Truist upgraded FTNT to Buy with a $200 target. JP Morgan raised its target on HOOD to $115. The downside call of the day came on ALB, where the lithium producer's target was cut to $185 from $225 on weak lithium prices.

European Watch: Index and Deal Flows

ORTEX Rebalance Radar flags Xero sitting just 2.3% above the MSCI World exit line, with a 52% deletion probability and $409M of potential forced selling. The ranking cut-off passed on 19 October. The outcome is already decided by where the stock closed that day.

Renault reports tomorrow with a mixed data picture: Austrian car registrations run 6% ahead year-on-year, but Dutch registrations are down 19%. European new car registrations overall hit 233,617 in September, the largest September total in five years.

CVC's tender for Italian pharma firm Recordati carries an 82% completion probability. If it closes, FTSE MIB trackers face $220M of forced selling.