Options Bets Split as Earnings Season Heats Up

Earnings season is driving a sharp divide in options sentiment across US equities. ORTEX data shows stocks heading into results attracting opposite flows, with call-heavy positioning on industrial names and defensive put pressure building elsewhere.

Tesla reports Q3 results today against a difficult backdrop. The stock is down 18% year-to-date and carries a short score of 31. German car registration data tracked by ORTEX, a leading indicator for Tesla revenue with a 43-day lead time, is running 269% above the same quarter last year. That is a striking macro tailwind. Options traders appear split on whether the print can translate into a sustained move.

Seagate Technology is another name drawing attention. The stock has dropped 21% recently ahead of its earnings print, yet its RSI sits at just 31.5. The ORTEX options score for Seagate points to bearish positioning dominating the past week, consistent with the sell-off.

On the bullish side, Union Pacific, BNY Mellon, and Cintas all show 100% positive options flow over the past seven days. These are names where call activity has completely dominated put flow. Union Pacific carries the largest days-to-cover at 12.4, adding short-covering potential to any upside move.

The most bearish options picture belongs to Blackstone and KKR. Both show near-zero positive options flow over seven days. Blackstone is down 30.5% year-to-date and trades at an RSI of 32. KKR has fallen 31.75% this year. Both face Q3 earnings with options markets skewed firmly to the downside.

Lucid Group stands out as a squeeze candidate. Short score is 83. Days-to-cover is 13. RSI is 26.9. That combination, heavy shorting, low RSI, and thin float, makes it a name to watch if sentiment shifts.

Pennsylvania gaming data adds a macro note. Online sports wagering taxable revenue rose 66% year-on-year in September. That data, tracked by ORTEX, is a tailwind for gaming-linked options positioning heading into Q3 prints for casino operators like MGM Resorts, where bearish options flow has been prominent this week.