Tesla Day Dominates as M&A Rumours and Earnings Heat Up

The Big Print

TSLA is the story of the day. The EV maker reports Q3 2026 results tonight. Options markets are active, and the backdrop from real-economy data is striking. German car registrations, which ORTEX data shows lead Tesla revenue by 43 days with a strong statistical fit, are running 269% above the same quarter last year, all three months in. That is not a forecast. It is the sharpest leading-indicator reading attached to any company reporting this week. Short sellers are not positioned heavily against the print: days to cover stand at just 0.36.

M&A Rumour Moves Markets

AMBA (Ambarella) is trading higher after an unconfirmed rumour circulating on an M&A blog suggested NVDA (NVIDIA) may be a mystery bidder for the semiconductor firm. No confirmation has emerged. Ambarella makes AI vision chips used in edge applications. A deal would mark one of NVIDIA's larger acquisitions if it proceeds.

Options and Earnings Watch

PCG (PG&E) options hit a 52-week extreme call skew today. The utility reports earnings tomorrow. GE (GE Aerospace) saw analysts cut targets even as retail interest picked up, a split signal worth watching. ALK (Alaska Air) published its Q3 2026 earnings call transcript today.

Europe: Autos and Index Radar

RNO (Renault) reports tomorrow. Austrian car registrations, a leading indicator for Renault revenue, are up 6% year-on-year, while Dutch registrations are down 19%. The picture is mixed. VOLCAR B follows on Thursday, with Finnish car registrations running 9% below last year's level.

On the index front, XRO (Xero) sits just 2.3% above the MSCI World exit line, with $418 million of potential forced selling at stake. The MSCI November review announcement falls on 11 November. With the rank date already passed on 19 October, Xero's fate is largely set by where it trades now.