Cencora shorts retreat as analysts lift targets ahead of November print

COR has put together its best month in over a year, up 11.2% in October alone, and the data behind the move points to something more than momentum: short sellers are cutting exposure, analysts are raising targets, and the borrow market suggests no meaningful resistance from the bearish side.

Short interest has fallen sharply, dropping 15.4% over the past month to 2.0% of free float, the lowest reading in the 30-day history available and likely a multi-quarter low. The pace of covering has been steady rather than panicked: positions peaked near 4.6 million shares in mid-September and have declined almost every session since. Borrow costs remain negligible at 0.48%, and availability is essentially unconstrained, with over 189 million shares available to lend against fewer than 4 million shorted. There is no squeeze dynamic here; short sellers are simply stepping back. Options positioning confirms the same lean. The put/call ratio of 0.36 sits just above its 20-day average of 0.35, barely a quarter of a standard deviation above the norm, and well off the 52-week defensive high of 0.82. The market is not hedging.

The Street has moved in the same direction as the stock. Argus Research raised its target from $340 to $380 on October 20, maintaining a Buy. UBS trimmed its target from $430 to $400 on October 16, also keeping Buy, a modest recalibration rather than a change in conviction. Leerink Partners nudged its Outperform target from $380 to $388 earlier in the month. The consensus sits at Hold with three analysts formally rated there, but the active changes are skewing positive. The mean price target of $369 implies roughly 7.5% upside from the current $343, a gap that has narrowed as the stock has rallied but still favours the bulls. EPS momentum factor scores are among the strongest signals: the 30-day EPS momentum rank is 93rd percentile, and the 90-day rank is 85th, meaning estimate revisions have been running hard in Cencora's favour. The ORTEX short score of 32.5 has been essentially flat all month, in the low-risk range, consistent with the low SI and loose borrow.

One ownership detail is worth watching. Walgreens Boots Alliance Holdings LLC, which holds a Schedule 13D position, last disclosed 9.615 million shares representing 4.96% of the class, down from 5.4% previously. The filing was made on June 9, 2025. Under Schedule 13D rules, Walgreens is required to amend when its holdings change materially, but a holder who drops below 5% may not file again. The institutional register otherwise shows active accumulation: T. Rowe Price added nearly 1.68 million shares last quarter to reach 7.6% of the company, and JP Morgan Asset Management added over 1.2 million shares to reach 2.8%. Those are meaningful flows into a $65 billion company. On the insider side, the net 90-day position is a sell of roughly $4.7 million in value, driven primarily by a discretionary sale of $3.7 million by an Executive Vice President in August. The remaining activity is largely grant-related and plan-driven. The selling is not clustered or accelerating.

Against its closest peers, COR's 4.0% gain on the week compares with 7.1% for MCK and 7.4% for CAH. Both rivals moved more. The drug distribution group has broadly re-rated higher, so Cencora's gain is sector-driven as much as company-specific. The August earnings reaction, a one-day move of 6.1%, was the last meaningful test of sentiment, and the stock held most of that gain over the following five days.

The next fixed date to frame is November 4, when Cencora reports quarterly results. With short interest at a floor, borrow conditions loose, and analyst targets freshly raised into the print, the question that print will answer is whether the EPS momentum that drove this month's re-rating has genuine earnings behind it.