Barrick Slips Again as Peers Stabilise Before November Print

Barrick Mining heads into its November 9 earnings with the stock extending its recent slide, now down further from the CAD 57.74 level noted in last week's note, while the broader gold peer group has largely steadied.

The price is the most notable change since the previous note. Barrick closed at CAD 56.90 on Tuesday, down another 1.4% from last Friday and off 5.5% over the past month. The peer picture has shifted too. This week, Wheaton Precious Metals fell 4.6% and iMaX Gold dropped 3.9%, so the gold complex is softer broadly. But Kinross Gold lost just 0.2% on the week, Torex Gold fell 1.6%, and Pan American Silver was off 1.7%. Barrick's 1.4% weekly decline sits toward the weaker end of the group rather than the worst, but it has now underperformed on the month by a meaningful margin against names like Kinross. The pattern of relative softness noted last week has continued.

The lending market remains an afterthought for Barrick bears. Short interest is 1.1% of the free float, unchanged for two weeks and up only 2.5% over the past month. Borrow cost has ticked up 29% over the past week to 0.57%, but in absolute terms that is still negligible. Availability is effectively uncapped, with over 1.5 billion shares available to lend against fewer than 19 million borrowed. The ORTEX short score is 28.6, consistent all week, and the days-to-cover reading ranks in the 75th percentile, reflecting the low absolute short interest rather than any genuine squeeze dynamic. There is no short-side story here.

What the factor scores do flag is a divergence between Barrick's valuation and its earnings trajectory. The EV/EBIT factor ranks in the 86th percentile, suggesting the stock looks cheap on that metric relative to its universe. But EPS momentum scores sit in the 38th percentile on a 30-day basis and the 39th percentile over 90 days. Forward earnings estimates are pointing lower, with the 12-month forward year-on-year increase factor ranking just 17th percentile. The dividend score, at the 97th percentile, remains a standout. Barrick trades on a trailing PE of roughly 9.9 times and EV/EBITDA near 4.7 times, with both multiples drifting modestly higher over the past week as the stock price has fallen. The analyst community last flagged a 29% discount to consensus price targets, though that data is from early October and the stock has continued to drift lower since.

The insider register from the summer is worth keeping in mind ahead of November 9. The 90-day net insider position, last updated August 24, shows net selling of roughly USD 14 million across recent filings. The most recent open-market sale was a USD 3.6 million disposal by Darian Kevin Rich on August 24. There was a modest open-market purchase by director Robert Samek in mid-August at CAD 57.77, close to the current price, but the overall net flow leaned negative. On the institutional side, BlackRock lifted its stake just above 5% (per a July 2025 Schedule 13G filing), and Capital International trimmed below 5% as of a May 2026 amendment. Neither filing carries activist intent. Stakes are as-last-disclosed around the 5% threshold, and holders dropping below that level may not file again.

Barrick's last earnings print, on August 10, saw the stock fall 8.4% the following day and finish the subsequent five-day period down 3.3%. The November 9 print therefore arrives with the stock already weaker on the month, a relatively soft peer showing over the past week, and analyst price targets that imply meaningful upside even after recent cuts. What to watch is whether the Q3 results provide enough operational detail on the Fourmile development timeline to close any of that gap, or whether the earnings-day reaction pattern from August repeats.