IDACORP shorts ease but options tell a different story

IDA gained 0.7% over the past week to $138.04, trailing a median gain of 1.6% across its closest peers, with LNT, XEL and SO each adding more than 1.9%.

Short interest has pulled back sharply from its recent peak, though the broader trend remains elevated. Shorts cut positions by 7.4% over the past week, with shares short falling to around 5.95 million. That still leaves short interest at 11% of the free float, up 31% from a month ago. The borrow market offers no corroboration for the bears: cost to borrow has dropped 17% this week to just 0.39%, and availability is loose at 390%, nearly three shares available to lend for every one currently borrowed. That combination, heavy short positioning built over October alongside cheap and plentiful borrow, suggests the shorts who remain are comfortable holding without facing any cost pressure. The ORTEX short score has eased to 65.7 from a recent peak near 70.6 reached mid-week last week, tracking the modest cover.

Options positioning tells a different story. The put/call ratio has climbed to 3.28, well above its 20-day average of 1.93 and 1.4 standard deviations elevated. That is not far from the 52-week low on the call side at 0.31, recorded just last week on October 14, which makes the swing in the ratio over a matter of days particularly sharp. Heavy put loading relative to calls points to investors buying downside protection ahead of the October 29 earnings release. The last print, in late July, sent the stock down 1% the following day and 2.4% over five days. That pattern is modest by most standards, but the options market appears to be pricing in more caution this time.

The analyst picture is broadly supportive but has been drifting lower on price targets. Morgan Stanley's David Arcaro raised his target this week to $144 from $143, maintaining an Overweight rating, a marginal move that keeps the firm constructive. The more notable shift came from Barclays, which trimmed its target to $149 from $162 on October 9. Both firms remain Overweight, and the mean target across the Street sits at $153.22, implying about 11% upside from the current price. Wells Fargo, which upgraded IDA to Equal-Weight in late July, has a $155 target. The pattern across the three active analysts is the same: constructive on the name, but willing to trim ambition. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of around 20.2, which has drifted up roughly a point over the past 30 days, and EV/EBITDA near 12.3. The dividend score ranks in the 94th percentile of the ORTEX universe, fitting for a regulated utility.

The ownership picture includes one noteworthy development. Wellington Management filed a 13G/A in August disclosing its stake had dropped from 5.2% to 4.4%, taking it below the key reporting threshold. Per the standard disclosure caveat, Wellington could reduce its position further without filing again. BlackRock remains the largest holder at 11.8% of shares, and added 340,000 shares in the quarter to September. T. Rowe Price also added 342,000 shares over the same period. Capital Research and Management made the largest institutional addition on a percentage basis in the most recent disclosed period, adding 864,000 shares to reach a 4.3% stake. On the alternative data side, the Wikimedia Foundation data shows retail attention for IDA running at a z-score of 2.46 against its own 90-day history as of late September, an elevated reading that may partly reflect the approaching earnings date. EPA generation data shows Idaho Power's gross capacity factor at 55.09% in June, marking both a three-month rising streak and the smallest June reading since records began in 2024. Neither dataset has been measured to lead the company's reported financials.

The specific thing to watch is the October 29 earnings release. Short interest has retreated from the mid-October spike but remains a full third higher than a month ago, and options positioning has turned defensively heavy in a matter of days. Whether the put buying proves well-placed will depend on what management says about rate case developments and capital expenditure guidance, the two factors the bear case centres on.