Earnings Eve Options: Bulls Circle Chips, Tesla in Focus

Tesla reports Q3 earnings today. Options traders have been active all week. The stock is down 16.9% year-to-date, and analysts see only 6.5% upside from current levels. That muted consensus is drawing two-sided flow into the options market ahead of the print.

Texas Instruments just posted strong Q3 results and guided Q4 revenue above estimates. The stock has climbed 60% this year. TXN's short score sits at 32.6, suggesting bears are not pressing the chip name aggressively even after the run. Options flow points to earnings momentum rather than a fade.

Negative options bets this week are concentrated in semiconductors. NVIDIA, Micron, and Advanced Micro Devices all show elevated negative contract volumes. That fits with CNBC reporting that chip stocks dragged on the S&P 500 earlier this week.

Meta Platforms is also in focus. The company says over 10 million US and Canadian users have activated its Muse personal AI agents in just six weeks. Options sentiment for Meta is mixed. Its short score of 29.4 reflects limited bearish conviction, but the YTD gain is only 5.2%, leaving directional traders cautious.

Taiwan export orders surged 69% year-on-year in September, according to ORTEX Alt Data. That macro signal underpins bullish options in Taiwanese semiconductor names with US listings. Centene led ORTEX options scores this week on its own earnings catalyst, up 72% YTD.

The Russell 2000 review cut-off falls on 30 October. ORTEX Index Rebalance Radar forecasts $209M of buying in TOP Financial Group at 76% probability. Watch for options positioning around smaller names near the rebalance date.