Telix Shorts Dig In as Stock Hits 18-Month Low

TLX heads into its October 22 result having shed nearly 19% in a month, with bears firmly in control of the narrative heading into the print.

The short position tells the most pointed story. Short interest has climbed to nearly 11% of free float, up roughly 3% over the past month, a level that ORTEX classifies as high. The ORTEX short score has pushed to 79, a reading that places TLX in the most-shorted decile of the market and has been creeping higher through October. The borrow market offers little sign of imminent squeeze pressure, however. Availability is running at 155%, meaning roughly 1.5 shares remain available to lend for every one already borrowed, well above the 52-week tightest point of 42%. Cost to borrow has also eased back to 1.54% after briefly spiking above 2.5% earlier in October. Shorts can still enter and exit without friction.

The bull and bear cases rest on very different reads of the same pipeline. Six analysts carry buy ratings against two holds, with a consensus price target of AUD 24.17 compared to Wednesday's close of AUD 14.52, implying a substantial gap between where the Street thinks the stock belongs and where the market has priced it. Bulls point to the radiopharmaceutical franchise and what they see as a durable growth runway in oncology imaging and therapy. Bears appear to be focused on earnings quality: the EPS momentum factor scores sit in the 2nd and 3rd percentiles on both 30-day and 90-day bases, meaning estimate revisions have been running in the wrong direction. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 65.6x leaves little room for execution shortfalls. Price/book has compressed roughly 20% over the past 30 days, tracking the share price lower rather than expanding.

One alt-data point adds texture without forecasting the print. Medicaid units reimbursed for TLX's drugs were up 37% on the same quarter a year earlier in Q1 2026, according to Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services data collated by ORTEX. That dataset has not been measured as a lead indicator for TLX's reported revenue, so it describes demand trajectory in the US government payer channel rather than predicting what the company will report tonight.

The stock fell 7.2% on the day of its last earnings release in August and drifted another 0.3% over the following five days. Today's print will test whether the Street's wide gap between target and price reflects a genuine valuation opportunity or whether the persistent downward revision trend has further to run before estimates reach a floor the market can accept.