TTMI: Retail Attention Spikes on Earnings Day as Cost to Borrow Doubles

TTM Technologies reports today, and the data around the print has shifted since the pre-earnings note published three days ago. Cost to borrow has nearly doubled. Retail attention has hit a multi-month extreme. The stock has partially recovered from last week's lows.

Positioning Update: What Changed Since Monday

The previous earnings preview noted cost to borrow at 0.36%. It has since risen to 0.43%, up 99% over the past week. That is still a low absolute rate, and availability remains extremely loose at the ceiling reading, with roughly 93.6 million shares available to borrow. There is no borrow squeeze in progress. The CTB move reflects incremental demand for shorts rather than any supply constraint.

Short interest stood at 4.0% of the free float as of October 20, a fraction below the 4.1% peak cited on Friday. The 30-day build of 21% remains intact. Among close peers, SANM has fallen 11.5% over the past week, the sharpest drop in the group. TTMI itself is down 1.1% over the same period, outperforming a peer median of minus 3.5%.

The put/call ratio at 0.624 on October 21 is now running nearly 2.0 standard deviations above its 20-day mean of 0.49. Demand for downside protection has not eased since Friday.

Retail Attention at a Three-Month Extreme

The most notable new data point today is retail attention. Wikipedia page views and ORTEX platform traffic for TTMI are running at a combined z-score of 3.25 against their 90-day average, the highest reading in recent history per the ORTEX Alt Data layer. This is attention, not a revenue or earnings indicator, but a spike of this magnitude on earnings day typically reflects retail traders actively researching the name into the print.

The Bull-Bear Divide

Analysts remain firmly constructive. The mean price target sits at $211, against a current price of $102.15. Truist Securities raised its target to $231 on October 13, keeping a Buy rating. The bull case centres on data centre and aerospace demand, which together account for more than three-quarters of revenue, plus the Epiq acquisition adding to the RF portfolio. EPS momentum factor scores sit at the 94th and 95th percentile over 30 and 90 days respectively.

The bear case, as framed ahead of this print, is about AI spending optionality reducing demand for complex PCBs, tariff exposure, and execution risk on the Epiq integration. The stock is down 13% over the past month against a buy-rated consensus, which means the market is pricing in more caution than the analyst community currently reflects.

CEO Edwin Roks made an open-market purchase of 10,000 shares at $111.77 on August 25, a discretionary buy at a price above where the stock trades today.

What to Watch

The level that would materially change the short picture is whether the cost to borrow continues climbing after today's print, or resets sharply lower, as that would signal whether the short build was pre-earnings positioning being unwound or a longer-term structural view on the name.

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Data summary

• SI % of free float: 4.0% (Oct 20), up 21% over 30 days
• Cost to borrow: 0.43%, up 99% week-on-week
• Availability: at ceiling, borrow supply abundant
• Put/call ratio: 0.624, 2.0 standard deviations above 20-day mean
• Retail attention z-score: 3.25 vs 90-day average (Oct 20)
• Analyst mean price target: $211 vs current price $102.15
• Earnings due: today, October 22