ADM shorts retreat while options traders pile into calls

Archer-Daniels-Midland has shed 5.1% over the past week to $79.36, roughly in line with its closest peer group. Beneath the surface, short sellers are cutting positions and options traders are buying calls at some of the most aggressive levels of the past year.

Short sellers step back

Short interest fell 8.2% over the past month to 2.64% of free float, its lowest level in recent months. The borrow market remains exceptionally loose. Availability stands at 4,867% of short interest, meaning there are roughly 49 shares available to borrow for every one already lent out. That figure sits well above the 52-week floor of 774%.

Cost to borrow rose 80% over the past week to 0.42%. That is the sharpest weekly move since tracking began. At that absolute level, however, 0.42% is still minimal. The move is worth watching but does not point to a tightening borrow market in any practical sense given how abundant supply remains.

Call positioning stays extreme

The put-to-call ratio printed at 0.39 on October 21. That is 1.6 standard deviations below the 20-day mean of 0.49 and within touching distance of the 52-week low of 0.38. As noted in the previous ORTEX report on October 21, the drift in the PCR from around 0.55 in mid-September has been sustained rather than a single session move. It has not reversed.

Peers have had a similarly weak week. BG fell 6.1% and DAR dropped 5.3%, which suggests the share price pressure is sector-wide rather than specific to ADM.

Retail attention and the earnings date

ORTEX Wikipedia views data shows retail attention at 2.54 standard deviations above ADM's own 90-day average as of October 21. That is the highest reading in the tracked period. The dataset measures attention, not a revenue indicator, and no lead relationship to ADM's reported figures has been established.

ADM reports on November 3, 12 days away. JP Morgan lowered its price target to $75 on October 12, keeping an Underweight rating. The consensus mean target sits at $80.30, roughly where the stock trades now. UBS holds the most constructive view with a Buy rating and a $95 target.

Data summary

• Short interest: 2.64% of free float, down 8.2% over one month
• Borrow availability: 4,867% of short interest
• Cost to borrow: 0.42%, up 80% over the past week (still low in absolute terms)
• Put-to-call ratio: 0.39, near the 52-week low of 0.38
• Retail attention: 2.54 standard deviations above 90-day average (ORTEX Wikipedia views)
• Next earnings: November 3, 2026