Earnings Season Fires Up, Moderna Drops 15%

US: Results Drive the Day

Earnings season delivered sharp moves across sectors on Thursday. Norfolk Southern beat expectations as a tighter trucking market pushed rail demand higher. Texas Instruments Q3 results prompted a round of analyst target revisions, with the consensus rising to $337. Quest Diagnostics raised guidance despite disclosing a breach of its Quanum system, a rare combination of good news and bad.

Moderna fell roughly 15% after a prominent YouTuber known as TOGI revealed a full-portfolio put position against the stock. The move is unusual. Moderna also sits near the top of ORTEX's MSCI World addition forecasts, with a 90% probability and $5.5bn of estimated tracker buying. A 15% drop complicates that picture considerably.

BNP Paribas upgraded Tesla to Neutral and raised its target to $420. Short interest in the stock remains elevated, and the upgrade follows a period of heavy analyst scrutiny.

Walmart is on course for its best monthly rally since 2014. Some analysts read that as a defensive rotation signal, pointing to rising caution among consumers.

Europe: Auto Week Begins

European earnings season picks up pace. Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken and Sartorius Stedim Biotech posted results today. Volvo Car reports tomorrow. ORTEX alt data shows Finnish car registrations running 9% below year-ago levels, while India registrations are up 9%. The two signals point in opposite directions ahead of the print.

Mercedes-Benz follows on 28 October. Dutch car registrations, which have a strong historical fit to Mercedes revenue, are running 6% below last year.

Index Watch

The Kimberly-Clark acquisition of Kenvue carries a 93% completion probability. Completion would force an estimated $1.8bn of total selling across the S&P 500, Russell 1000 and Russell 3000. The S&P 500 deletion alone equals 3.4 days of normal volume. An index announcement is expected on 20 November.