CEMEX Short Interest Jumps 42% in a Month Before Sunday's Earnings

Short sellers have nearly doubled their position in CX over the past month. Shares short climbed 42% in the 30 days to October 21, reaching roughly 16.5 million shares. The move accelerated in the second week of October, when short interest jumped from around 10 million shares to above 15.7 million in a single session on October 9, a step-change that has held and extended since.

The stock itself has been largely unmoved by the build. CX closed at $10.11 on October 22, up less than 1% on the week and barely 1% higher on the month, though it slipped 2.7% on the day. Borrow costs have fallen sharply over the same period that short interest rose, dropping more than 63% in a week to 0.20%, the lowest level in the 30-day window shown. Availability is exceptionally loose, with more than 7,100% of current short interest still available to borrow, meaning the lending market presents no friction for new shorts. Cost to borrow at these levels signals the short interest build reflects a considered view rather than a squeeze-driven technical.

The analyst community remains broadly positive but less uniformly so than before. The consensus is buy, with five buy ratings against three holds and a mean price target of $14.68, roughly 45% above the current price. Citigroup upgraded to Buy on October 15 while simultaneously cutting its target from $13.70 to $12.00, an unusual combination that reflects the central tension in the story: the structural improvement thesis is intact, but near-term execution risk in the US is real. Bulls point to leverage down to 2.08x, a raised full-year EBITDA growth target of 16 to 17%, and 480 basis points of margin expansion in Mexico in Q2. Bears focus on US margin pressure from weather disruptions in Texas and Arizona, elevated cement imports, and the MXN sensitivity that means a one-peso move per dollar swings consolidated EBITDA by roughly $85 million.

The one prior earnings print in the dataset is a reference point worth noting. At the July 23 report, the stock fell 5.2% on the day and extended that to a 6.2% loss over the following five sessions. Options positioning heading into Sunday's release has shifted more cautious than at any point in the past year. The put/call ratio reached 0.41 on October 22, the 52-week high and above one standard deviation above its 20-day average of 0.29. That is a meaningful rotation toward downside hedging for a stock that spent most of September with a PCR below 0.13. The print will test whether the structural bull case on margins and free cash flow conversion can hold against a backdrop of US construction softness and a short interest position that has doubled in a month.