SRAD borrow market tightens as analysts cut targets ahead of earnings

Sportradar carries a heavier short load than most of its closest peers right now. Short interest has climbed 27.5% over the past month to roughly 17.1 million shares. The borrow market has tightened sharply with it.

Tighter than peers on every lending measure

Among the sports betting and gaming data names, Sportradar stands out on borrow pressure. Availability of shares to lend has fallen to 21.5% of short interest as of October 22, meaning fewer than one share remains available for every four already borrowed. A week ago availability briefly touched 10.5%, the tightest point in 52 weeks. The cost to borrow has risen 67% over the past month to 1.56%, still modest in absolute terms, but the direction matters. The ORTEX short score sits at 73.6, ranking in the 5th percentile for lending pressure across all stocks.

Peer Genius Sports and DraftKings do not show comparable tightness in their borrow pools. Both gained between 1.7% and 2.0% in the past day. Sportradar fell 1.2% over the past week, against a median gain of roughly 2.0% for its closest peers.

Analysts lower targets in unison

Three firms trimmed price targets this week alone. Canaccord Genuity cut to $22 from $24 on October 23 while holding a Buy. JP Morgan lowered to $13 from $15 on October 20, maintaining Neutral. Morgan Stanley moved to $13.50 from $15 on October 19 at Equal-Weight. The consensus mean target sits at $16.06, implying substantial distance from the current $11.99 close. Every recent move has been a reduction, no upgrades, no initiations in the past two months beyond Wolfe Research's Outperform initiation in September.

The bear case, as articulated by analysts, centres on sports rights cost inflation running faster than Sportradar can pass through to sportsbooks, while advertising revenues have yet to prove they can compensate.

Options and retail attention confirm the skew

Put-call ratio sits at 0.3306, 2.39 standard deviations above its 20-day mean of 0.3096, a level it has held for three consecutive sessions. Demand for downside protection has stepped up since mid-October. Separately, retail attention measured via Wikipedia page views and ORTEX platform traffic has risen to 3.26 standard deviations above its own 90-day baseline as of October 22. That is attention, not a positioning signal, but the coincidence with the options skew and borrow tightening is notable.

What to watch

Earnings are scheduled for November 3, eleven days away. Availability at or below 10% of short interest would represent a further tightening from already-stressed levels. The analyst consensus target of $16.06 only becomes relevant if the print shifts the earnings trajectory; three consecutive weeks of target cuts suggest the sell side is not yet ready to stop trimming.

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Data summary

• Short interest: ~17.1 million shares, up 27.5% in one month
• Borrow availability: 21.5% of SI (52-week low: 10.5% on October 21)
• Cost to borrow: 1.56%, up 67% over one month
• ORTEX short score: 73.6 (5th percentile rank for borrow pressure)
• Put-call ratio: 0.3306, 2.39 standard deviations above 20-day mean
• Retail attention z-score: 3.26 vs 90-day baseline (as of October 22)
• Analyst mean target: $16.06; current price: $11.99
• Next earnings: November 3, 2026