VIV Heads Into Q3 Print With Bulls Leaning Heavier Than Bears

VIV enters its October 27 results with options traders tilting decisively toward calls, borrow conditions loose, and short sellers incrementally building positions after months of relative quiet.

Options positioning is the most bullish signal in the setup. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.34, about one standard deviation below its 20-day average of 0.37, meaning call demand is running well above what is typical for this stock ahead of the print. That sits well below the 52-week highs in the ratio and reflects a market leaning toward upside rather than protection. The stock itself has added 8.5% over the past month to $12.96, though it slipped just under 1% on Friday, pointing to some late caution.

Short sellers are quietly adding exposure, but the borrow market tells a relaxed story overall. Estimated short shares rose roughly 15% over the past month, with a further 4.9% gain on the week. Yet at current levels the position is small in absolute terms, and availability is generous, with around seven shares available to borrow for every one already lent out. Borrowing costs have ticked up sharply on the week (now 0.67%, up 68% from seven days ago) but remain low in absolute terms. The peak borrowing cost on September 28 of over 8% was a short-lived spike that has long since normalised. Nothing in the lending market suggests squeeze pressure.

The analyst debate on VIV has been one-sided on ratings but increasingly cautious on price. Barclays cut its target to $15.50 from $16.50 in July, while Scotiabank trimmed its target modestly around the same period, both maintaining neutral-equivalent ratings. That follows a cluster of downgrades earlier in the year: Barclays moved to Equal-Weight in March, UBS moved to Sell, and JPMorgan dropped to Underweight. Goldman Sachs remains the lone major bull with a Buy rating. The mean analyst target around $15 to $16 sits well above the current $12.96, implying the Street sees room for recovery even as sentiment has cooled. The earnings yield stands at roughly 8%, the price-to-earnings ratio at 12.6x, and VIV's dividend score ranks in the 95th percentile, a figure that tends to attract income-focused holders in an environment where the Brazilian real and telecom fundamentals are stable. Against that, sector momentum scores are weak at the 36th percentile, and the stock's near-term relative strength has lagged the broader market.

The ownership structure adds one unusual dimension. Telefónica S.A. holds 77.9% of shares, leaving a thin free float for institutional positioning. BlackRock added just over 1.5 million shares as of September 30, a modest but directional move. The last two earnings prints resulted in sharp selloffs: the July 2026 event sent the stock down roughly 9.6% the next day and 12.7% over the following five days.

The October 27 print is therefore less about whether VIV can sustain its recent price recovery and more about whether the underlying Brazilian telecom fundamentals give the bullish options positioning any fundamental ground to stand on.