SoFi Shorts Hold Near a Year High Two Days Before the Print

SoFi Technologies reports third-quarter results on October 26, with short sellers holding their largest position in at least a year and analysts cutting targets ahead of the release.

Short interest has settled at 18.0% of free float, roughly 217 million shares, after a relentless build through October. The position is up 21% over the past month and traces back to two sharp step-changes: the September 22 to 23 surge from around 180 million to 183 million shares, and the October 7 to 8 jump from 198 million to 214 million. FINRA's most recent fortnightly settlement, covering the period through September 30, puts the official count at 214.9 million shares with 4.15 days to cover. The stock has given ground through most of this build, falling 15% over the past month to $14.62, and peers have not moved anything like as far: Upstart Holdings is down 3.6% on the week while Dave Inc. gained 3.6% and American Express added 3.6%, which underlines that the selling pressure is specific to SoFi rather than a consumer finance sector story. Availability in the lending pool, at 92%, is tighter than it was a week ago when it ran closer to 105%, though borrowing costs remain low at 0.53%, so there is no sign of a mechanical squeeze developing. Options positioning is slightly more bullish than defensive, with the put/call ratio at 0.43, a touch below its 20-day average of 0.45.

The debate between those holding the short and those who see value centres on whether SoFi's bank charter makes it structurally different from the consumer lenders it is often grouped with. The bull case rests on first-quarter results that showed 43% revenue growth to $1.1 billion, personal loan originations up 90% year on year, and a Rule of 40 score of 68%. Truist Securities cut its target to $16 from $19 on October 23, the day before the print, citing no change to its Hold rating, which is a cautious move from a firm that had raised its target only two months earlier. StoneX initiated at Buy with a $25 target earlier in October, and Scotiabank and Piper Sandler also carry positive ratings with targets in the $22 to $25 range. The mean analyst target is $20.23, which implies roughly 38% upside from the current price, yet the bear case focuses on Q2 guidance that came in below Street estimates at $0.10 to $0.11 adjusted EPS against a consensus of $0.14, and on the Technology segment, where revenue fell 27% in the first quarter. Morgan Stanley's Underweight with a $15 target sits close to where the stock is already trading.

The FDIC call-report data adds one concrete backdrop. SoFi's bank subsidiary has posted nine consecutive quarters of rising total assets, reaching $56.8 billion as of April 2026, and nine consecutive quarters of rising total deposits, reaching $46.8 billion over the same period. This dataset has not yet been tested as a lead for the company's reported figures, so it is balance-sheet colour rather than a directional signal for the print, but the streak does support the argument that the deposit base underpinning the bank charter is still expanding.

CEO Anthony Noto added 316,000 shares to his holding in mid-September, taking his total to 12.3 million shares. The two open-market sales in the recent trades list, a small planned sale by an EVP in October and the CTO's September disposal, were both executed under pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans and carry limited informational weight. Net insider activity over the past 90 days is modestly negative at roughly 50,000 shares sold on balance, so the insider picture is not a clear directional call in either direction.

The October 26 print will test whether SoFi's origination momentum and bank-charter advantages can produce guidance that narrows the gap between the $15 Morgan Stanley bear target and the $25 that the most optimistic initiations imply.