Rivian Earnings Preview: A Well-Funded Short Case Into Tuesday's Print

Rivian reports third-quarter results on October 27, and the electric truck maker arrives at that date having lost more than a fifth of its value in the past month, down to $11.83, with short sellers firmly in control of the narrative.

Short interest has held near 14.1% of the free float after a sharp step-up from roughly 12.3% in early October. At around 172 million shares short, the position is at its highest level in the 30-day window. The bears are sitting comfortably: borrowing costs have actually eased, now running at just 0.50%, down about 9% on the week. Availability has loosened slightly to 182%, meaning roughly 1.8 shares remain available to borrow for every one already lent out, well above the tightest level recorded in the past year. Shorts face no squeeze pressure whatsoever. The ORTEX short score of 71.7 puts Rivian in the bottom 6th percentile of the universe on this metric, a persistently elevated bearish signal that has barely moved over the past ten sessions.

Options are telling a different story. Call-side interest has been picking up relative to puts: the put/call ratio has dropped to 0.88, roughly 1.2 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.92. That is the lowest PCR reading in several weeks, and a notable shift given the stock is down 22% over the past month. Some options participants appear to be positioning for a bounce off a weak print rather than layering on fresh downside hedges.

The fundamental debate heading into Tuesday is stark. Bulls point to Rivian's improving software-defined vehicle architecture, the R2 platform's broader addressable market, the Volkswagen JV's winter-testing progress, and a $1 billion equity infusion at around $16 per share that shores up the liquidity position. Citigroup initiated coverage in mid-September with a Neutral rating and an $18 target, consistent with a Street mean of $19. Morgan Stanley remains the clearest bear voice, holding an Underweight with a $14 target. The bear case centres on the Q2 miss: adjusted EBITDA came in at negative $472 million, revenue of $1.38 billion disappointed, and full-year guidance still calls for negative EBITDA of $1.8 to $2.1 billion on 62,000 to 67,000 deliveries. With the stock now at $11.83, well below both the Morgan Stanley bear target and the VW equity infusion price, the market has already moved past most of the Street's downside scenarios.

The ownership structure adds a layer of complexity. Volkswagen, filing under the Porsche Automobil Holding entity, holds 15.9% as of its most recent 13G/A and has been increasing its stake. Amazon holds 10.9%, unchanged in the last reported period. These are strategic holders, not momentum investors, and their presence anchors a meaningful portion of the float. Insider activity has been almost entirely compensation-related, with director share grants and a handful of small pre-arranged plan sales from the CFO and Chief Administrative Officer. There are no open-market purchases from management that would signal personal conviction at current prices.

The print will test whether Rivian can show any progress toward the variable profit line that management has been targeting, and whether delivery guidance for Q4 holds up against an alt-data backdrop that includes record-low August EV registrations in Washington state and a 42% year-on-year decline in California ZEV sales through Q2.