Bunge Options Lean Bullish as Activists Hold Firm Ahead of Q3 Print

Bunge Global SA reports third-quarter results on October 28, trading at $103.22 with two prominent activist shareholders on its register and options markets tilting more bullish than at any point in recent months.

Options positioning is the clearest pre-earnings signal. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.32, about one standard deviation below its 20-day average of 0.37 and close to the lowest reading of the past year, which bottomed at 0.24. Call volume is running well ahead of puts, the opposite of the defensive posture typical in the week before a print. That tilt looks more pronounced when set against the Q2 experience: the stock fell more than 10% on the day of the July 29 release and gave up another 9% over the following five sessions. Despite that, options traders have not sought out protection.

The activist register adds an unusual dimension to the ownership picture. Both Glencore plc and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board filed Schedule 13D disclosures in July 2025, carrying stakes of 16.4% and 13.1% respectively. A Schedule 13D signals active intent, not passive indexing, and together the two holders account for nearly 30% of the company by last disclosure. Those positions have been stable: Glencore reported no change through September 30, and CPPIB's most recent filing also showed no movement. Stakes are as last disclosed around the 5% threshold, and a holder dropping below that level may not file again. BlackRock added 621,688 shares through September and Capital Research built its position by 781,106 shares through July, reinforcing the picture of institutional accumulation.

Analyst sentiment is broadly positive, though targets sit well above the current price. The mean price target from the Street is $140.56, implying roughly 36% upside from $103.22. JP Morgan trimmed its target modestly to $139 on October 12 while keeping an Overweight rating. UBS raised its target to $155 in September. Barclays has been consistently positive, lifting targets twice in the first half of the year. The bull case centres on a stronger second half driven by biofuel policy clarity and improving crush margins. The bear case points to a sharp EBIT decline in Agribusiness, weaker processing results, and projected year-over-year declines in merchandising. At a forward PE of 9.5 and an EV/EBITDA of 8.1, the valuation is undemanding, but both multiples have compressed modestly over the past month.

Short sellers are not pressing the position into the print. Short interest is 3.8% of the free float, and it has fallen roughly 2.5% over the past week. Borrowing costs are low at 0.45% and have eased further over the past month. Borrow availability is extremely loose at 1,232%, well above the 52-week floor of 571%, meaning there is ample capacity to add short exposure but little sign of conviction to do so. The print will test whether a valuation near decade lows and two large activist holders are enough to absorb whatever the agribusiness numbers deliver.