Tech Earnings Dominate a Week Full of Risk

The Big Prints

The heaviest earnings week of autumn is here. Microsoft and Amazon both report Thursday, October 29, alongside Intel. Options desks have been pricing elevated implied volatility across tech all week. Intel is up 136% year-to-date but carries only 3.5% short interest as a percentage of free float. Bears are absent. That makes any revenue miss particularly dangerous for sentiment. CoreWeave, by contrast, heads into its own print with 24.8% SI of free float, up 3.6 percentage points in a week. With 3.5 days to cover, a beat could trigger a sharp squeeze.

Europe's Car Problem

European carmakers face a tough reporting season. Mercedes-Benz reports Tuesday with Dutch car registrations running 6% below the same quarter last year across all three months. ORTEX's Dutch registration data leads Mercedes revenue by 26 days with a strong fit. Volkswagen and Renault follow Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Austrian car data, which leads Volkswagen revenue by 18 days, is also running 6% below last year. The data points are soft across the board.

Short Sellers and Index Pressure

McCormick faces two headwinds at once. Analysts trimmed their consensus target and ORTEX Index Rebalance Radar puts the spice maker at a 77% probability of deletion from the MSCI World index in November, with $735 million of forced selling expected. The announcement is due November 11.

On the Russell 2000, the October 30 ranking cut-off is five days away. Vaxcyte sits at the boundary between both Russell indices simultaneously. A close below $63.17 removes it from the Russell 2000; a close below $62.53 pulls it into the Russell 1000, forcing $430 million of passive buying.

EV stocks remain under pressure. US plug-in vehicle registrations hit a four-year July low at 21,482 units, according to ORTEX state fleet data. Lucid Group short interest stands at 64.7% of free float, with availability near zero at 0.02%.