QBTS: Heavy Short Interest, Tightening Borrow, and Earnings in 11 Days

D-Wave Quantum heads into its November 5 earnings report carrying one of the heaviest short loads in the software universe, a borrow market that has been cycling in and out of near-full occupancy, and options traders leaning more bullish than at almost any point in the past year.

The short position is genuinely large and has been building. Short interest has climbed to 21.1% of the free float, up roughly 0.8% on the week and nearly 1.5% on the month. Bears have consistently added to positions as the stock fell 33.6% over the past month to close at $11.66. The short score has held steady around 72.4, ranking in the 4th percentile for short-score rank across the universe, a signal that this is one of the more heavily shorted names ORTEX tracks. Days to cover is estimated at more than four days, meaning any reversal would not be absorbed quickly.

Borrow conditions, however, tell a more volatile and complicated story. Availability has collapsed from relatively comfortable levels in mid-September to just 5.2% as of October 22, meaning roughly one share remains available to borrow for every 20 already out on loan. On October 21, availability briefly dropped to 0.8%, the tightest reading since early October when it hit 0.5% at the 52-week low. The 62% decline in availability over the past week is the dominant feature of the lending market right now. Borrowing costs, oddly, remain subdued at around 1.0%, down slightly on the week despite the tightening. That combination, tight availability with low cost, is worth watching: it suggests the lending pool is shrinking but has not yet been repriced to match the scarcity.

Options traders are positioned on the other side of the bears. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.68, well below its 20-day average of 0.73 and 1.4 standard deviations below the mean, the most call-heavy reading this stock has seen in almost a year. The 52-week PCR low is 0.60, meaning the ratio is now approaching its most bullish extreme. That divergence matters: a 21% short position argues for sustained skepticism, but the options market is pricing relatively little downside protection into a name where the stock has already lost a third of its value in a month.

The Street's fundamental picture is similarly split. QBTS is loss-making on every conventional metric: the P/E sits at minus 32, EV/EBITDA at minus 25. The price-to-book of 4.7x has compressed sharply, down more than 2.2 points over the past 30 days as the stock fell. Factor scores reinforce the bear case on fundamentals: quality sits in the low teens, earnings yield ranks in the 29th percentile. The two offsets are momentum in EPS estimates, ranking in the 70th percentile for 30-day EPS momentum, and a high EPS surprise score of 81, meaning the company has repeatedly beaten (though very low) consensus estimates. A previous note recorded QCaaS revenue growing 53% year over year to $1.9M with a $10M two-year enterprise contract, early-stage numbers but a trajectory that matters to growth-oriented holders.

The institutional register confirms that large passive buyers are present. BlackRock lifted its stake to 8.9% of shares as of September 30, adding nearly 3 million shares in the quarter. Two Vanguard entities filed fresh 13G disclosures in April, collectively holding nearly 11% of shares outstanding at last disclosure, though The Vanguard Group's prior consolidated 11.35% position was reduced to zero in a March 2026 13G filing, a significant change that reflects an internal restructuring of how Vanguard reports these stakes rather than a clean exit. All 13D/G positions are as last disclosed and holders dropping below 5% may not file again. Retail attention is also elevated: ORTEX's Wikipedia-views signal is running at a z-score of 4.1, a historically high reading for this stock, pointing to unusual public interest at this moment.

Insider activity over the past 30 days has been dominated by tax-withholding sales, transaction type F, from the CEO, Acting CFO and several other executives on October 15, triggered by equity vesting. These are compensation mechanics, not discretionary sales, and carry little signalling weight.

With earnings 11 days away, the question is whether the call-heavy options positioning reflects a genuine expectation of recovery or simply an absence of hedging demand after a 34% drawdown has already done most of the bears' work. The last quarterly result on August 6 saw the stock fall about 3% on the day and lose another 2.3% over the following week, a relatively contained move for a name of this volatility. The interaction between a nearly fully occupied borrow market, a 21% short position and any positive surprise on November 5 is what will determine whether that orderly pattern holds.