AB InBev Bears Retreat as Q3 Print Approaches

BUD reports third-quarter results on October 29 with short sellers on the run and the lending market far looser than it was six weeks ago.

Short interest has fallen nearly 30% over the past month, dropping from around 8.5 million shares in mid-September to 5.7 million by October 22. The retreat has been orderly rather than forced: availability has widened dramatically, with roughly 3.4 shares now available to borrow for every one already lent out, compared to a 52-week low below 2%. Borrow costs remain modest at 1.3%, up about 31% on the week but still far from the kind of level that signals a squeeze. The ORTEX short score has dropped from 44 in early October to 38.8, reflecting the lighter positioning. The stock itself gained 7.7% over the past month to $84.26, though it slipped 1.4% on October 23.

Analysts heading into this print have been trimming targets, not conviction. TD Cowen lowered its price objective to $85 from $89 on October 13, keeping a Hold rating. Wells Fargo followed with a cut to $88 from $97 on October 5, while maintaining Overweight. Both moves suggest the Street still sees the stock roughly around fair value but is paring back assumptions, most likely on volume expectations in key markets. The consensus remains a buy, with three Outperform or equivalent ratings against two Holds, and JP Morgan and Wells Fargo still carrying targets meaningfully above the current price. AB InBev trades at roughly 17.5 times trailing earnings and 9.8 times EV/EBITDA, multiples that have expanded about 1.4 points and 0.02 points respectively over the past 30 days, reflecting the stock's recent re-rating.

The earnings history offers a muted template. The last major print, in July 2026, produced a 1.9% gain on the day but the stock drifted 1.1% lower over the following five trading days. A September mid-year event saw a 1% drop on the day followed by a 6% five-day decline. Neither reaction was dramatic for a $167 billion company, but the five-day drift has been negative in each of the past three episodes.

One ownership detail is worth noting. Altria Group, which holds roughly 8% of shares on a conventional institutional basis, is also listed on the 13D register with a much larger disclosed stake, reflecting AB InBev's complex multi-class share structure. Jorge Paulo Lemann also appears on the 13D register with a stake last disclosed in May 2026. These positions are event-driven disclosures and stakes are as last disclosed; holders dropping below 5% may not file again. Options positioning is effectively neutral, with the put/call ratio at 0.77, barely a quarter of a standard deviation above its 20-day average of 0.77, and well below the 52-week high of 1.04. The market is not paying up for downside protection.

The October 29 release is therefore a test of whether volume trends in emerging markets and premium segments have stabilised enough to support the valuation expansion the stock has already priced in over the past month.