WULF Heads Into Earnings With Short Position Unchanged and Options Unusually Bullish

TeraWulf closes the week at $11.32, down 3% in five days and off 35% over the past month, yet the two most interesting signals in the data point in opposite directions: options traders are positioning more bullishly than at almost any point this year, while a 29% short interest position remains entirely intact heading into a November 6 earnings print.

The options market tells the more surprising story this week. With the put/call ratio at 0.32, call demand is running well above put demand. That reading is 1.35 standard deviations below the 20-day mean, near the most bullish options positioning of the past year. The 52-week low for the PCR is 0.3153, so the current reading is within touching distance of that floor. The contrast with the price action is stark: the stock has lost a third of its value over one month, yet options buyers are leaning in rather than reaching for protection.

Short interest tells a different story, and the divergence is the tension worth sitting with. Bears hold 29.1% of the free float, roughly 121.7 million shares, up about 1% on the week and 2% over the month. That position has barely moved through the entire sell-off. The borrow market gives shorts no reason to cover: cost to borrow has fallen 21% over the week to 0.57%, among the lowest levels of the past six weeks. Availability is 109%, meaning lendable supply comfortably exceeds the current short interest, so fresh shorts can be added cheaply and without friction. The ORTEX short score of 68.9 places WULF in the sixth percentile for short-score rank. The short position is not crowded into a corner; it is comfortable.

The Street remains formally bullish but with widening internal dispersion. The consensus mean target is $32.25 against a stock trading at $11.32, implying roughly 185% upside. But that average hides a wide range of conviction: Morgan Stanley is at $65 with Overweight, while TD Cowen initiated this month with a $21 Buy target and Cantor Fitzgerald cut its target from $37 to $30. Rothschild initiated with a Neutral and a $15 target, barely above today's price. Factor scores add another layer of contradiction: EPS momentum ranks in the 99th percentile over 90 days, EPS surprise at the 98th, and analyst recommendation differential at the 96th, all elite readings. At the same time, sector rank sits at the 38th percentile and short-score rank at just the 6th. The bull case rests on $27 billion of contracted revenue across 839MW of committed capacity. The bear case is blunt: 102MW has actually been delivered, the balance sheet carries $5.2 billion of debt, and a $755.7 million non-cash warrant charge distorted the last print.

The ownership picture carries one detail worth noting: CEO Paul Prager holds a Schedule 13D/A position on the EDGAR register as an activist filer. His most recent filing, dated August 2025, listed 10.7% of the class. Separately, Google filed a Schedule 13G in September 2026 disclosing 7.6% of shares, reflecting its role as a strategic counterparty on the Fluidstack campus. Lone Pine Capital, a high-conviction active manager, disclosed 5.1% in April 2026. These are as-last-disclosed stakes around the 5% threshold; holders dropping below that level may not file again. Insider activity in the past 90 days nets to a modest sale of roughly 312,000 shares and $5.1 million, driven primarily by a CEO sale of $2.3 million in late August that was made under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan, reducing its signal value considerably.

Earnings history adds context without offering comfort. The two most recent prints produced next-day declines of 6.7% and 8.0%, and five-day reactions of roughly minus 9% in both cases. The next release is November 6, eleven days away. With options tilting bullish but short sellers holding firm, the question heading into that print is whether the call activity reflects genuine conviction on the buildout narrative or simply the residue of speculative positioning in a name that has already fallen sharply.