Haleon Heads Into Thursday Print With Shorts Retreating and Borrow Loose

Haleon plc reports third-quarter results on October 30 with short sellers pulling back sharply, borrow conditions comfortable, and options traders showing little concern ahead of the release.

The most striking positioning shift is in short interest. Shorts rose about 52% over the past month to a recent peak, then fell nearly 6% in a single session on October 23 to roughly 22.9 million shares. That retreat, combined with borrowing costs near 0.50% and availability running at 744%, paints a picture of a borrow market that is anything but tight. At 0.50%, the cost to borrow has fallen about 34% from a month ago. Nearly eight times as many shares are available to lend as are currently borrowed. There is no squeeze pressure visible in these numbers.

Options confirm the same relaxed posture. The put/call ratio of 0.032 is barely above its 20-day average of 0.029, sitting just 0.55 standard deviations above the mean. At 0.032, it is far closer to its 52-week low of 0.020 than its 52-week high of 0.543. Call flow is heavily dominant, which is consistent with a market not hedging defensively into the release. The stock itself has added 10% over the past month to close at $10.20, paring back just 0.7% on Monday.

The bull case for Haleon centres on the resilience of its branded consumer health portfolio, spanning oral care, pain relief and vitamins, where pricing power has held even as volume growth has moderated. The stock scores well on dividend yield and earnings yield, each ranking in the 87th to 89th percentile, and quality metrics remain strong. The ORTEX short score has eased to 32.3 from 35.2 a week ago, its lowest recent reading, suggesting the bearish conviction that drove the October build-up has softened. Bears, however, will point to the EPS surprise rank in the 18th percentile, meaning Haleon has a history of coming in below expectations, and a PE near 16.8 times that leaves limited cushion if guidance disappoints. EV/EBITDA has declined 0.30 turns over the past month to 23.3, edging modestly cheaper, but not dramatically so for a defensive consumer health name.

Pfizer's activist 13D position on the register adds an overhang worth watching. Pfizer last filed a Schedule 13D/A in March 2025 disclosing a prior stake of 7.3%, but has not updated the position since. Under 13D/G disclosure rules, the most recent published figure should be treated as a historical snapshot: Pfizer could have materially changed its holding without further obligation to file, as stakes dropping below 5% require no further disclosure. BlackRock, by contrast, has been actively adding, disclosing an 8.5% stake as recently as July, up from 7.3%. The last print, on July 30, saw the stock fall roughly 4% on the day and extend the loss to about 2.4% over the following five sessions, a pattern the market will have in mind.

The print will test whether Haleon's organic growth trajectory and category pricing have held firm enough to justify the stock's near-10% monthly re-rating, and whether management's guidance signals a business still on track or one beginning to feel volume pressure in a tighter consumer environment.